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Talleyho69's avatar
Talleyho69
Moderator
May 18, 2020

Covid-19 in Guerrero

This information comes from both Meganoticias and Despertar de la Costa, both on line newspapers. It is intended to provide information, NOT be an argument or an attempt to stir the fire, just answer questions that people may have.

In Mexico testing is being handled differently than in some other countries. If you think you have symptoms of Covid 19, you call a phone number. You are interviewed, and if necessary, staff comes to you and tests you.

In the state of Guerrero as of yesterday there were 805 confirmed cases (accumulated), 292 active (with symptoms in the last 14 days), 401 recovered persons and 112 deceased persons carrying Covid-19. Likewise, of the 2,226 studies that have been performed, 1,242 have been negative.

In the municipality of Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo there have been 6 cases to date.

Out of the 81 municipalities in Guerrero, 12 are considered to be part of La Esperanza. To be one of these not only could you not have any cases in the last 28 days, you cannot share a border with a municipality that has had any cases in the last 28 days.

Why 28 days?? Hugo López - Gatell Ramírez, undersecretary for Prevention and Health Promotion said, "Conventionally, in applied epidemiology, two incubation periods or the clinical course of the disease are considered as an interval that would allow one to recognize that there is no transmission of the disease," he said.

He emphasized that the health sector used 4 incubation periods, since this is 7 days. "We want to do it in the most extreme way with 28 days and as we see the response of this change in the mitigation modality, if we see that it is safe at a given moment, we do not have a date, we could see if there is a positive response and then consider other entities."

The Federal government has stated that these municipalities may resume activities on May 18, but that the final decision was up to the state governors.

"The governors of the states with relevant municipalities could start operating on Monday, if they decide not to, they are exercising their powers as a state health authority and if they say no, there is no lawsuit with the federal government, this resumption includes the school activity in these municipalities, ”he said.

The Guerrero state governor has decided not to allow the resumption of normal activities in the La Esperanza municipalities at this time.

OK, so what does this all mean? The beaches, and anything non essential is closed until at least June 1. It could be longer. In an interview last week, on Meganoticias, the governor made a comments about opening the beaches at the end of July. There are a couple of flights in and out of the airport every week.

It's an interesting time. It's incredibly quiet and a great time for enjoying the things we often miss-animals, sounds, flowers, cooking, reading, whatever makes you happy, AT HOME!!!
  • Calculating the death rate is not easy when there are variables.

    One way to calculated without variables is to divide deaths / (deaths + recovered).

    In USA as of June 7th 2020 that yields a rate of 12.97%

    World wide, the death rate is about 10.50%
  • It's a little bit different here in our tourist town of Zihuatanejo.

    We have had 18 confirmed cases, all have recovered. We have pretty much been closed to the outside world since April 3. Everything is closed except grocery stores and markets, even our beaches.

    Yesterday the first international flight arrived from the US, and it was full. We are back on the at least weekly schedule for similar flights. Yes, we need the tourists, desperately.

    How long do you think it will be until it starts coming in on the flights, with those that drive in, and especially what we get so much of, the bus people? They purchase full day to two night trips here from all over Mexico, arriving by the busload. Before the "crisis" we typically had over 100 buses every weekend.
  • Tallyhoe69,

    I suspect the very first bus will kindle the outbreak.
  • Friends of mine in Melaque told me tour buses form guadalajara showed up in town over the weekend, until now there have been no cases. I don't think that will last
  • I know you can’t believe everything you read.
    Today’s LA Times:
    Mexico 142,000 cases reported.
    16,000 deaths reported.
    1 in 5 cases involve health care workers due to lack of PPE.
    Article states that only one third of cases and deaths are actually reported, jumping cases and deaths three fold.
  • Remember that it's being approached differently here. Unless you are strongly suspected to have it, you are not tested.
  • Thanks for sharing that info. Unfortunately, I don't thing any of us are getting the real truth as far as the numbers are concerned. I've heard professionals say the numbers are greater than what's being reported and I've heard from professionals that say they're cooking the books inflating the numbers so they get Federal funding. Personally, I don't believe any of the numbers and just stay as responsible as I can while still venturing out.