I cannot foresee a reason why the benchmark price of crude cannot end up in the thirty dollar range.
...I can foresee hundreds of situation where the crude benchmark can be put in the $115 bbl range in the not too distant future (and, there are hundreds of situations I cannot foresee!).
There are so many variable that drive crude, listing them would take the ~pages required for a dissertation.
Forecasting oil benchmarks out is impossible; you better hedge fast if you want to be in this business with any success.
Just one question for you: how many net crude contract bets are there currently? And, are these bets on the upside, or down side? Where are the commercial hedgers betting vis speculative bets?
....at what point will lower crude prices curtail (expensive) new drilling technology and sands extraction? Boom.