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MEXICOWANDERER's avatar
Oct 07, 2018

(Sigh) Yet Another Storm Northern Mexico

2018 is going down as famously flaky for "predicted" storm paths and intensity from the National Hurricane Center.

Nevertheless it takes only one real wolf...

Sergio is forecast to cross the Baja peninsula sometime late next week then continue on across the gulf and torment Sonora then Arizona.

It remains a powerful storm as of today but it has to cross nearly a thousand miles of unfriendly cool water before making landfall on the Vizcaino peninsula. Guerrero Negro, Vizcaino, and Mulege are all within the crosshairs.

Long ways off, but Guaymas to Sta Ana is also shown in the storm track.

No advisories have yet to be posted for the Pacific side of the peninsula -- 5 days is a long time allowance for change.

25 Replies

  • Jeezo, what in the world has gone wrong with NOAA? Has it gone political or stupid? I took two semesters of Geoscience class in college almost fifty years ago.
    We were taught hurricanes, typhoons, tropical storms were "Hot sea surface temperature, hot humid air machines"

    Sergio has been crawling along over water about seven degrees too cool to support a hurricane. Couple that with mild dry air, wind shear, and other factors and it has looked to me all along what hurricane or even tropical storm was wildly optimistic for landfall on the Baja peninsula.

    It may well end up that Sergio hits the coast with breezes and light drizzle then fizzles out to overcast skies.

    And we pay hundreds of millions of dollars for a National Rumor Service?
  • Maybe it will help the Colorado river fill lake mead which is hurting.

    The moisture will also help rancheros barely scraping by in Sonora.
  • RoyB's avatar
    RoyB
    Explorer II
    MEX - The last storm that came up through Arizona is really filling up the Mississippi River now North of St Louis, MO... I see the great Missouri River and the Mississippi Rivers both are showing flood states north of St Louis now... All of this will be heading back into gulf giving them more nightmares...

    What you are showing will only add to more storms for the central states...

    The later it gets in the season is going to result in a big snow path I suspect...

    Better get my snow shovel located in case it gets over here in Virginia haha... Been along time since we have had a real big snow here - Back in the 70s I think it was....

    Roy Ken