33 year resident of Colorado... Every year is different. As IDman said, it is a combination of moisture and temps. However, the primary factor is hours of sunlight. Moisture and temps have much more to do with how long the leaves will hold on an mid and lower elevations. Some years we get an early hard freeze and the leaves turn black and fall off. It's a******shoot. Bet on late in the third week of September for prime color. By the mid to end of the fourth week of September most/all of the leaves at the higher elevations will be gone.
The Salida, Buena Vista, Aspen and Gunnison areas are great. We'll spend two weeks camping, Jeeping, ATVing, hiking and chasing the color this year. Aspen ridge in BV is amazing. Also found an equally large aspen grove near Bonanza, but you will need high ground clearance.
If you are limited on time, etc. You can always go up to Estes Park. However, be forewarned, it is absolute gridlock in Rocky Mountain National Park during color season. I know, I lived there for 30 years. Guess why I live in Buena Vista. Before we lived here we stayed at Snowy Peaks in BV.