goducks10 wrote:
I won't deny a down turn is coming and as history has shown it's over due. Everyone seems to be jumping on the 'Worst crash ever' bandwagon. I guess we won't know until it gets here. If we do have a big crash I still don't think that will make the RV industry change gears. I'm not convinced that they want to flip things around and go a different way. It would cost millions to retool and without incoming revenue from poor sales during a crash or even several year after, I think they'll just continue with business as usual.
It doesn't need to be a big crash, just a run of the mill normal market correction, or even a 20 to 30% long term uptick in fuel prices. RV's are a by product of the holding companies main business which is making money. That's why the entire industry operates on the piecework labor model in pre engineered disposable plants, which are usually leased.
All one needs to look at is historical wholesale shipments at the RVIA web rag and compare that to the economic indicators of the same point in time.
As soon as the markets correct, and the vast majority of boomers see how even the smallest correction affects their 401Ks and other retirement investments, RV sales will be the first thing to bite the dust. The holding companies already have their strategy planned out, you can bet your rear end on that. Hence the acquisitions where you now have two holding groups with a combined 85% +/- share of the RV market. When it happens there will be an instant shortage of plywood in Indiana, as it will all be bought up to make the "for sale or lease" signs to place in front of the plants due to excess manufacturing capacity.
This supposed "RV sales boom" is trumped up by the RV Industry Association through things like the GORVing campaign and RVbusiness daily. The reality of it is it's not a boom, it's a bubble, and bubbles always pop eventually. Sales of RVs during this boom have not even kept pace with population increase. The number of registered RV's in the US is a proven constant.
When someone comes along and points out the real scenario in a way that gains some traction, they are then silenced by the deep pockets of the RVIA. Greg Gerber being bought out of RV Daily report is a prime example. It's now an RVIA cheerleading rag just like RVbusiness. Who do you think does the lobbying to keep lemon laws off the books where RV's are concerned?