DunellenGuy wrote:
I've got a couple of questions about depreciation for a Class A Diesel RV. I frequently read that a new RV looses 30% of it's value the moment you drive it off the lot. I've also heard that you should expect to pay about 30% below MSRP on a new RV.
Now, I'm actually shopping used, which leads to some questions:
1) If a new RV is purchased at 30% off MSRP, and then loses 30% of value, does that mean that the resale value after a year is approximately 60% less than MSRP? (For example, MSRP $200,000 - 30% -> sale price of $140,000. Drive off the lot less 30% -> $98,000 resale value?)
2) Is there a simple rule-of-thumb based on MSRP of how much the resale value of a well maintained, quality diesel Class A should be depreciated over the first ten years? Meaning, just to get into the ballpark for negotiations?
I've been researching used Class A gas MHs for about a year, so my experience isn't exactly yours ... but maybe what I've seen can help you...
#1 would stand to reason but is complicated by the fact that many people don't negotiate down to the 30% off of MSRP for new units. People I talk to time and time again have bought new using the car market as reference and have only gotten 10-15% for example (and have thought they've done well). So even though there are a good many of us who do research on pricing, there is significant "inertia" in the market to push real selling prices of new closer to MSRP than the 30% off number.
Additionally, NADA doesn't help the situation. For example, go price a new MH from RVDirect (an example of 30% off pricing) and then go to NADA pricing for a one year old identical unit and you'll (at least from my experience) find that it claims very close to the same price that you could get one new.
So even though one would expect a particular depreciation curve from a new unit based off of 30% off MSRP for example, there exists what I would call a "NADA Bermuda triangle" for 1-4 year old units where the difference between NADA claimed values of these units and what one could by new is very little. This creates an incentive for some to buy new.
A key piece of information to answer the above question would be to get one's hands on the wholesale NADA values. I have yet to go by the library to research that part but the information is available.
#2 On the other hand can somewhat be answered by using the NADA values. Once you get out to 8-10 years the market forces are a little different. Instead of almost new units competing with new units because the price differential is relatively low, now things like history, condition and of course supply/demand come into play. Best I can tell right now, NADA low retail can be used as a general rule of thumb for units that have a good number available on the market to choose from and aren't selling in less than 30days on RVtrader for example. For example, a 2007 Itasca Sunova 35J which is on my short list. It and it's cousin Winnebago have about 5 units to choose from in my region. Based on reading through forums I found that new these sold for around $85k. NADA claims a low retail value of about $45k. Of those I have been watching, I saw one not last long on Craigslist at $39k. Others I see sitting a long time at the $60k price point. So the low retail does not seem unreasonable.
Another point to take into consideration is competition a unit may have from other segments. We looked at two 2012 Thor Hurricane 34? bunkhouses at a local Camping World. The better condition one we looked at had been in inventory for over a year! The pricing was relatively good and with talking to the sales guy I got the impression I could get that one down below low retail. However it was evident to me that it wasn't selling because of price pressures from the "Class A crossover market." Why would one buy a 3 year old bunkhouse with poor basement storage and a "dated floorplan" with lack of some features when a new Thor ACE bunkhouse with all the trendy stuff is almost the same price?
That was very long winded but hopefully some food for thought. If you can take the time to watch the market and specific units for how long they stay for sale (and don't be afraid to ask how long they have been for sale) AND be equipped with the wholesale values, low and avg retail you can be well prepared for your negotiations.