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GDS-3950BH wrote:

2012Coleman wrote:
I'll start believing this data when I no longer have to plan trip a year in advance in order to get a spot.

Believe what you wish, but the data is the official release from the RV Industry Association.

So I went and looked at the last 4 years of RVIA shipment releases.
2017 was the highest on record for units shipped.
2018 was the second highest for units shipped.
From 2016 through 2019 the average number of units shipped per year was 456,258.
Total units shipped over the last 4 years was 1,825,032. Now I'm sure a few of them have been destroyed in crashes or fires in the last 4 years but other than that you could pretty much say they are all still in use. You can also figure that most of those RV buyers in the last 4 years were not new to camping. Meaning their used units are also out there in the market. Let's assume another 1,000,000 units.
Another Google search came up with approximately 14,600 RV campgrounds in the US (Private and State Park).
Some more math. 2.8 million units (probably a low number) divided by 14,600 RV Campgrounds = roughly 192 RV's per campground.

I think we could stand a few years with fewer RV's being made.

How many people have wised up and bought used? Maybe that accounts for the drop in new sales also.

GDS-3950BH wrote:

wildtoad wrote:
Sounds a bit like Chicken Little.

No chicken little, just accurate data. A drop of close to 100,000 sold, or 20% in two years, is substantial. Call it 4 billion dollars (if you do the math from the RVIA trumped up revenue numbers), not exactly chump change.

Yeah, listened to business analyst who opined that this is a pre-cursor of a weakening economy as purchase of RV is a big-ticket use of disposable income.

It also might have saturated the sale to boomers and the next generation may not be so inclined to outdoors life.

We don't buy new every other year or every 3 or 4 years, we buy when out unit becomes worn out. Our last unit went 16 years and bought a new one and never even looked at a lot, we knew exactly what we want and bought it.

I pay zero attention to market trends but I will agree that in general, the RV industry turns out junk. Not all are, but most are.

Smart people will buy a nice used RV instead of an overly priced new rig. Taken care of, RV's last generations.

You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality – Ayn Rand

Great quote, Bob. I'm a big fan of Ayn Rand.

GDS-3950BH wrote:

wildtoad wrote:
Sounds a bit like Chicken Little.

No chicken little, just accurate data. A drop of close to 100,000 sold, or 20% in two years, is substantial. Call it 4 billion dollars (if you do the math from the RVIA trumped up revenue numbers), not exactly chump change.

Could it be that every body that wants one, has one.

We've been fulltiming since 2005. We travel all year. At times you hardly ever saw another RV out there on the roads. This year I would say there were more RV's we have seen traveling in a long time. I know that's nothing official, but campgrounds are fuller as well.

If you spend any time in northern Indiana, you know that every field and parking lot is crammed full of units. Manufacturers run out of places to store them, so they put them anywhere. Thousands of units just waiting to be shipped out. It's like the industry ignores signals. If the economy is good, they produce until the bottom falls out, then they stop. Like another poster mentioned, they reach the saturation level, but keep going. I think sometimes they are their own worst enemy.

Dale

I'll start believing this data when I no longer have to plan trip a year in advance in order to get a spot.

azdryheat wrote:
I work for a multi-state RV dealer and we're selling record numbers at our shows.

I just went to a big RV show, in the Seattle area. i've been attending it for the past 5 years and this was the most crowded one i seen.