Forum Discussion
DrewE
Jan 04, 2017Explorer III
The talk is on disruption in the marketplace--large and often sudden changes in technology and life. In particular, he claims that electric and self-driving vehicles powered by solar power will completely alter our life.
The analysis is predicated on the continued exponential decreases in battery cost and solar cost, mainly. I don't think that's necessarily a valid assumption. Most technologies go through a period of very rapid innovation, where costs decrease very rapidly and capabilities increase equally rapidly, and then reach a plateau of being mature where further improvements are much, much harder to come by. Batteries are probably already at that point, or nearly so, since the innovations he mentions are supply chain and consolidation improvements, not basic process or technology improvements. Solar cell costs I know a bit less about, but are somewhat tied to semiconductor costs (as it's related technology), and pure silicon crystals are relatively stable in cost so far as I know. Even Moore's law, about microelectronic technology improvements, will almost certainly slow down within a decade or so because of physical constraints that can't be readily overcome: transistors are approaching atomic scale.
He also seems to be assuming that major infrastructure changes follow similar curves of disruption as the adoption of consumer goods. I don't think that's necessarily valid either. If autonomous cars require special roadway features, even things like good pavement markings (much less pavement), it is not at all likely that the entire highway system will be upgraded in fifteen years.
RV technology may be changing some; I would not be at all surprised to see significant design changes in regards to better integration of batteries and electric systems, and all-electric coaches with hybrid drive systems integrated with the house batteries, and more ubiquitous solar setups. I think motorhomes with electric drivetrains will be a rather long time coming, though, and the charging infrastructure for them also a long time coming, even compared with electric cars.
The analysis is predicated on the continued exponential decreases in battery cost and solar cost, mainly. I don't think that's necessarily a valid assumption. Most technologies go through a period of very rapid innovation, where costs decrease very rapidly and capabilities increase equally rapidly, and then reach a plateau of being mature where further improvements are much, much harder to come by. Batteries are probably already at that point, or nearly so, since the innovations he mentions are supply chain and consolidation improvements, not basic process or technology improvements. Solar cell costs I know a bit less about, but are somewhat tied to semiconductor costs (as it's related technology), and pure silicon crystals are relatively stable in cost so far as I know. Even Moore's law, about microelectronic technology improvements, will almost certainly slow down within a decade or so because of physical constraints that can't be readily overcome: transistors are approaching atomic scale.
He also seems to be assuming that major infrastructure changes follow similar curves of disruption as the adoption of consumer goods. I don't think that's necessarily valid either. If autonomous cars require special roadway features, even things like good pavement markings (much less pavement), it is not at all likely that the entire highway system will be upgraded in fifteen years.
RV technology may be changing some; I would not be at all surprised to see significant design changes in regards to better integration of batteries and electric systems, and all-electric coaches with hybrid drive systems integrated with the house batteries, and more ubiquitous solar setups. I think motorhomes with electric drivetrains will be a rather long time coming, though, and the charging infrastructure for them also a long time coming, even compared with electric cars.
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