DrewE wrote:
The talk is on disruption in the marketplace--large and often sudden changes in technology and life. In particular, he claims that electric and self-driving vehicles powered by solar power will completely alter our life.
The analysis is predicated on the continued exponential decreases in battery cost and solar cost, mainly. I don't think that's necessarily a valid assumption. Most technologies go through a period of very rapid innovation, where costs decrease very rapidly and capabilities increase equally rapidly, and then reach a plateau of being mature where further improvements are much, much harder to come by. Batteries are probably already at that point, or nearly so, since the innovations he mentions are supply chain and consolidation improvements, not basic process or technology improvements. Solar cell costs I know a bit less about, but are somewhat tied to semiconductor costs (as it's related technology), and pure silicon crystals are relatively stable in cost so far as I know. Even Moore's law, about microelectronic technology improvements, will almost certainly slow down within a decade or so because of physical constraints that can't be readily overcome: transistors are approaching atomic scale.
He also seems to be assuming that major infrastructure changes follow similar curves of disruption as the adoption of consumer goods. I don't think that's necessarily valid either. If autonomous cars require special roadway features, even things like good pavement markings (much less pavement), it is not at all likely that the entire highway system will be upgraded in fifteen years.
RV technology may be changing some; I would not be at all surprised to see significant design changes in regards to better integration of batteries and electric systems, and all-electric coaches with hybrid drive systems integrated with the house batteries, and more ubiquitous solar setups. I think motorhomes with electric drivetrains will be a rather long time coming, though, and the charging infrastructure for them also a long time coming, even compared with electric cars.
I agree with some of your points, in particular moores law application in this field. However, the market pressure will also push parallel technology developments which may lead to resolutions to some of the barriers you mention. Hard to say.
A very interesting time to be alive. Angela and I both drive electric vehicles now and even since we bought our first one a couple years ago the charging infrastructure has more than tripled in both areas of the continent that we live. We initially did the vast majority of our charging at home but lately there are so many business sponsored chargers near us that it seems we are plugging in less and less at home. He mentions that briefly in the video and from a first hand point of view this is happening. Really it is the same approach as restaurants and supermarkets printing coupons to get you to shop at there store or eat at their restaurant. We went for a two hour hike today and there was a pubic charger close to the trail head sponsored by the local shopping district. We went for a hike and came back to a full battery again. Picked up a couple things we needed in the area and went home. Im sure it pays off for the business, The install probably cost them 2000 bucks per station and they gave us about 80 cents worth of power. We do find ourselves going to areas where the charge stations are readily available so their business plan is working at least on us. Kinda like the video mentions.
Its going to be an interesting decade. I wonder what Napa will sell. Lots of adjustments to come.
