RTCastillo wrote:
Sorry, you lost me here somewhere starting with speculative "presumably".
And yes, also on the how of the "short term turbulence will disappear after the first year." Care to explain how and why?
"Presumably" was over generous, not really speculative.
It's simple (Simplifying to demonstrate the principal):
- The USA and Brazil are the only soybean producers and they each produce 100 bushels for export.
- Normally the USA sells their 100 bushels to China and Brazil sells theirs to India.
If China starts buying from Brazil...where do you think India will get soybeans from?
In reality, there are multiple producers and buyers but the world production and world demand are roughly constant. It's just a matter of who sells to who.
In the short term, there can be some costs because there are existing shipping and contractual relationships that have to be reworked but really a tiny percentage of the overall price of a bean. After a year or two, those are all sorted out and the Chinese tariff only hurts China.