The other issue that’s being overlooked is the regional give & take trade. Transportation of anything is expensive these days, so to minimize that there’s a lot of north / south trade for no reason other than doing it east / west would result in much greater transportation costs, and therefore higher sales prices.
For example, there’s a huge vegetable growing area near Toronto, the Holland Marsh, that’s where a huge share of inexpensive veggies supplying the northeastern portion of North America comes from. Beyond that, a huge belt of land that is some of the finest potatoe growing land there is. During the summer months we no longer have to pay the high prices to ship in produce from California or Florida, we buy stuff grown within 500 miles of home.
Once tariffs are applied to ‘cheap Canadian imports’ the NE US will be paying February prices all year long for produce trucked 3,000 miles to the consumer.
Ditto for us in the north, and the farmers that grow the things we buy. Are Americans going to consume far more dairy products because there’s a tariff on US dairy heading north?
Or do the dairy farmers just learn to get by with a lot less income?