self driving sooner than we think!

I think you missed my point...they are in wide scale application now.

I got your point, I just think you're overstating "wide scale". I've never seen any AI assistance mechanisms built into the roadways, but of course I'm a human so maybe I just haven't noticed. I did some googling on the "Connected Vehilces V2I" and found lots of articles that talk about what it might look like in the future but nothing that indicated the current state of roll-out.

So, I don't think they are in "wide scale application now".

maillemaker wrote:

So self driving cars came out 5yrs ago?

I worked on a project 5yr ago that did just this in a midsize city.

Google "Connected Vehilces V2I"

We installed systems that duplicate traffic signals and signs electronically. The signal systems are now moving into wide scale implementation to accommodate cars that have the systems...

This is exactly what I'm talking about. When this becomes widespread, you'll know we've reached a turning point.

Pavement markings can already be detected by onboard cameras, so not a lot of need for those.

Until it snows.

Prediction: No matter how good self-driving cars get, they will never be perfect or infallible.

It won't take many accidents until the **** lawyers sue the manufacturers of self-driving cars into bankruptcy.

They don't have to be perfect or infallible - just statistically safer per mile than humans, which they already are.

You're right on the money angle, though. The nail in the coffin for human-driven vehicles will be when insurance companies start charging higher premiums for human-driven vehicles, and reduced premiums for self-driving ones. People will be priced out of human-driveable cars.

In fact one can easily wonder whether insurance will even be required for the owners of self-driving vehicles. If you are not driving, and you did not code the driving software, why would you be responsible at all in an accident? At that point, you are, literally, a passenger. It may very well come to pass that the manufacturers will be held liable for accidents.

And the estimate is that it will save 29,447 car accidents death a year.

Self-driving can save lives.

I foresee a pizza box satellite on all cars. LEO takes care of latency. Ground towers for tunnels.

Google maps has rarely let me down, except when the man behind the wheel (me) ignores it.

The absolute first step in developing a self driving car will be a navigation system that actually works 100% of the time. Mine doesn't. Instead it makes all sorts of stupid mistakes. It periodically totally loses the signal. It thinks I am on a nearby alternate street. I have a speeding warning set on mine. With annoying frequency it thinks I have left the Interstate and am driving on a ramp so it gives me a speeding warning. It makes all sorts of mistakes with routing especially when there is road construction or some other temporary issue.

A nav system is just child's play when it comes to the needs of self driving cars. It is also simple to design a system to drive within well marked lanes. It is more complicated to avoid accidents due to road conditions. A simple piece of paper is enough to screw up the current systems. A blowing piece of paper or some leaves is enough to cause a self driving car to slam on the brakes. One of the first people killed by a self driving car was the woman in Phoenix who tried to cross the street. Because of the false alarms, avoidance response had been turned down.

Science fiction and speculation about the future can be great fun, but for now we are a long, long, long way from what is needed for reliable self driving.

I can also imagine the law suits for any mistake a self driving car makes. Certainly settlements will be well up into the tens and tens of millions of dollars.

maillemaker wrote:

So self driving cars came out 5yrs ago?

I worked on a project 5yr ago that did just this in a midsize city.

Google "Connected Vehilces V2I"

We installed systems that duplicate traffic signals and signs electronically. The signal systems are now moving into wide scale implementation to accommodate cars that have the systems...

This is exactly what I'm talking about. When this becomes widespread, you'll know we've reached a turning point.

I think you missed my point...they are in wide scale application now.

So self driving cars came out 5yrs ago?

I worked on a project 5yr ago that did just this in a midsize city.

Google "Connected Vehilces V2I"

We installed systems that duplicate traffic signals and signs electronically. The signal systems are now moving into wide scale implementation to accommodate cars that have the systems...

This is exactly what I'm talking about. When this becomes widespread, you'll know we've reached a turning point.

Pavement markings can already be detected by onboard cameras, so not a lot of need for those.

Until it snows.

Prediction: No matter how good self-driving cars get, they will never be perfect or infallible.

It won't take many accidents until the **** lawyers sue the manufacturers of self-driving cars into bankruptcy.

They don't have to be perfect or infallible - just statistically safer per mile than humans, which they already are.

You're right on the money angle, though. The nail in the coffin for human-driven vehicles will be when insurance companies start charging higher premiums for human-driven vehicles, and reduced premiums for self-driving ones. People will be priced out of human-driveable cars.

In fact one can easily wonder whether insurance will even be required for the owners of self-driving vehicles. If you are not driving, and you did not code the driving software, why would you be responsible at all in an accident? At that point, you are, literally, a passenger. It may very well come to pass that the manufacturers will be held liable for accidents.

But they may well be closer to perfect than human drivers.

Prediction: No matter how good self-driving cars get, they will never be perfect or infallible.

It won't take many accidents until the **** lawyers sue the manufacturers of self-driving cars into bankruptcy.

maillemaker wrote:
You will know the turning point has been reached when they start altering road construction and signage to accommodate autonomous vehicles. When they start embedding things in the roadway, or special stripes on the roadway, or special visual or RF beacons on the roadside, that serve no purpose but to help AI vehicles navigate the roads, then you will know that the turning point has come.

Today, everything you see on and around roadways is to enable human drivers. Soon, there will be things there to enable AI drivers.

So self driving cars came out 5yrs ago?

I worked on a project 5yr ago that did just this in a midsize city.

Google "Connected Vehilces V2I"

We installed systems that duplicate traffic signals and signs electronically. The signal systems are now moving into wide scale implementation to accommodate cars that have the systems...

Pavement markings can already be detected by onboard cameras, so not a lot of need for those.

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:

This is a young guy and must be faking it -- driving 17 hours and sleeping on the wheel.

17 Hours Self-Driving Tesla

Or, I must be delusional when my daughter summoned her Tesla X from parking lot to where she was standing infront of the theater.

What else don't you believe?

"What else don't you believe?"
Almost anything I see on YouTube.