my experience.
follow the mfg recomended change interval, send a sample off to Blackstone labs for a analysis including TBN and look at the results to see the results.
On 4 vehicles my experience is that the mfg recomended change intervals of 7500-10K miles are VERY conservative for my driving. That includes heavy towing with my two duramax trucks, lots of stop and go city driving on my mercedes sedan and only 8K or so miles/year, and low miles/year on an SL roadster.
One of my duramax trucks now has 180K on it and it uses less than a quart of oil in 10K miles. The mercedes sedan has 170K and uses maybe a pint in 8K.
So, after all this, I just go by what the mfg recomends. Oils and engines have come a long way since the 60's. With fuel injection and computer control virtually no fuel dilution, with modern mfg processes and block material, much better control on rings and seating so virtually no blow by, and modern metalurgy almost no wear, add to that modern oils, and mfg recomendations are conservative.
BTW if you think U.S. vehicle change intervals are long, look at the change interval on the same vehicles sold in Europe. Often the change interval is double or more.