Forum Discussion
wapiticountry
Jun 13, 2021Explorer
At least in our part of the country there truly was a lumber shortage. You couldn't buy a bunk of OSB at any price. Yards were rationing purchases to 10 sheets or less. The reasons were many.
COVID shut down mills, Cross Border trade with Canada was drastically curtailed and the Canadian lumber wasn't entering the market. Tariffs on lumber were increased in response to Canadian Tariffs on Cheese. (politics aside, it makes no sense to me to equate a necessary commodity like lumber with cheese, but the political mind works in strange ways)
Now, there is some inventory, but it is likely the yards bought it at market highs and need to bleed it off. Wholesale futures are down about 30% from the highs but plummeting retail prices would bankrupt the retailers that are now stuck with inventory they paid and arm and a leg to get. My WAG (wild arse guess) is we will see a gradual decline in the retail price over the next few months. Then we will settle into the new normal of high, but not quite ridiculously high, long term prices for lumber. Just like fuel, Food, travel, RV sites and everything else.
COVID shut down mills, Cross Border trade with Canada was drastically curtailed and the Canadian lumber wasn't entering the market. Tariffs on lumber were increased in response to Canadian Tariffs on Cheese. (politics aside, it makes no sense to me to equate a necessary commodity like lumber with cheese, but the political mind works in strange ways)
Now, there is some inventory, but it is likely the yards bought it at market highs and need to bleed it off. Wholesale futures are down about 30% from the highs but plummeting retail prices would bankrupt the retailers that are now stuck with inventory they paid and arm and a leg to get. My WAG (wild arse guess) is we will see a gradual decline in the retail price over the next few months. Then we will settle into the new normal of high, but not quite ridiculously high, long term prices for lumber. Just like fuel, Food, travel, RV sites and everything else.
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