Wowee The Insane Rise Of Copper Price

wapiticountry wrote:
At least in our part of the country there truly was a lumber shortage. You couldn't buy a bunk of OSB at any price. Yards were rationing purchases to 10 sheets or less. The reasons were many.
COVID shut down mills, Cross Border trade with Canada was drastically curtailed and the Canadian lumber wasn't entering the market. Tariffs on lumber were increased in response to Canadian Tariffs on Cheese. (politics aside, it makes no sense to me to equate a necessary commodity like lumber with cheese, but the political mind works in strange ways)
Now, there is some inventory, but it is likely the yards bought it at market highs and need to bleed it off. Wholesale futures are down about 30% from the highs but plummeting retail prices would bankrupt the retailers that are now stuck with inventory they paid and arm and a leg to get. My WAG (wild arse guess) is we will see a gradual decline in the retail price over the next few months. Then we will settle into the new normal of high, but not quite ridiculously high, long term prices for lumber. Just like fuel, Food, travel, RV sites and everything else.

This is EXACTLY what is happening and what will happen afterwords. Economists have so much as said this is what they foresee. When things settle down, a sheet of 1/2" OSB will decrease form $70 to $25. This will make mills, truckers, loggers, retailers, wholesalers all a real good profit...and you'll feel good too, no longer paying that $70/sheet. Give it until next spring. Prices would drop faster if EVERYONE went out and bought out today's inventory, but.....
Every time I talk to a contractor, the first thing to pop up is the cost of lumber. I have to shut them down when it comes to politics. I remind them of which states provide the lumber, beef, pork and grain.