There is a common problem with prediction of any kind. You take a trend and project it into the future. This is of course not valid, since it ignores innovation. The problem is, how do you predict a new idea?
I am a retired Petroleum Engineer, so I will pick on my old business. We were finding less oil per year, at one point we were finding less oil than we consumed each year. Boom, stretch that trend into the future and we got Peak Oil. We should be in dire straits right now, but we are not. In fact the US, which was a has been, will/is the biggest oil producer on earth again.
How did this happen? People rejected what we had been taught in college, and the conventional wisdom of the time that we could not produce the oil in source rock (shale). Experts ignored this work and continued to teach and preach that it could not be done. Well, who was right?
So good luck predicting the future. Don't forget the power of the human mind, and don't forget that most of Africa and Asia have yet to industrialize. They want a life just like ours, and they will do whatever it takes to get it. My prediction #1.
#2, whatever we predict, it will be different.
