Jay Leno predicts demise of vehicles running on gas.

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:

ShinerBock wrote:

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:

ShinerBock wrote:

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:


And Elon Musk will not just be crazy ("eccentric" for this rich genius) but the biggest fool to bet you for those terms you outlined.

There is simply no good ROI to be had for 25% capability to supply the 2.5% EV share of car market.

Why you being a "Mr. Magoo" saying it can't be done?

Actually, I'm saying it will be done. Just not on the time frame you said and not way ahead of the economy of scale for a good ROI.

And how is that any different to what I am saying? I never said it will not be done Mr Magoo, I am only saying that it will take a lot longer than most here are thinking.

If you say so, then we both agree. But I never read anyone giving a timeline. Not even Leno -- nor the crazy-genius Elon Musk for that matter.

Go to the Tesla semi truck thread. Many people posting here seem believe it will happen in the next ten years.

mich800 wrote:

ShinerBock wrote:

Reisender wrote:


Hmmm. Maybe I’m missing understanding your post. The “charger”( or EVSE as it is correctly called as the charger is built into the car ) comes free with the car. It can operate from 120 volts 15 amp circuit up to a 40 amp 240 volt circuit. 16 amp (20 amp 240 breaker) seems to be the most common right now although many are just installing a 14-50 240 volt plug close to the parking spot.

You make it sound so easy for someone living on a budget to just install a plug close to where they are parking for the night, where their spouse is parking for the night, and where ever their kids are parking for the night. Maybe they can get up in the middle of the night and swap cars. I hope that don't have more than one kid like the average American family does either because that would be really hard. I also hope their public utilities company can handle them and hundreds of thousands of other families like them charging at the same time.

While this may all seem easy for people who are well of, it is not for families living under that $61k a year income with multiple kids. A smart idea for the kids is to have chargers at school parking lots if that school has the funds to pay for it. Most schools do not.

There are many logistics items that need to be addressed before ICE vehicles go away. Apartments, street parking, parking garages, etc. Not everyone has a garage or the ability to park near their home. The industry will change to a different energy type. But it will be much longer than some care to admit.

And how long to get a full charge on 110v? I have heard between 3-5 miles per hour. So that is not a viable option other to get to bike riding distance.

A full charge? No idea. For the first couple years of owning an EV we used a 120 outlet on a 15 amp circuit on our outside spot. Namely our Christmas light soffitt plug. Our daily commute was under 30 km. Worked fine. Plugged it in every second night or so. Again. Many people’s commute can be serviced by a 120 plug. We have a 240 EVSE in the garage that gets used occasionally.

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:

ShinerBock wrote:

Reisender wrote:


Hmmm. Maybe I’m missing understanding your post. The “charger”( or EVSE as it is correctly called as the charger is built into the car ) comes free with the car. It can operate from 120 volts 15 amp circuit up to a 40 amp 240 volt circuit. 16 amp (20 amp 240 breaker) seems to be the most common right now although many are just installing a 14-50 240 volt plug close to the parking spot.

You make it sound so easy for someone living on a budget to just install a plug close to where they are parking for the night, where their spouse is parking for the night, and where ever their kids are parking for the night. Maybe they can get up in the middle of the night and swap cars. I hope that don't have more than one kid like the average American family does either because that would be really hard. I also hope their public utilities company can handle them and hundreds of thousands of other families like them charging at the same time.

While this may all seem easy for people who are well of, it is not for families living under that $61k a year income with multiple kids. A smart idea for the kids is to have chargers at school parking lots if that school has the funds to pay for it. Most schools do not.

Eventually, with higher volume and more companies going into EV and achieving economies of scale, prices of EVs will go down.

China is doing the reverse, forcing domestic companies to start cheap and let the consumers live with their limitations. Their goals are different as they want to reduce pollution on the already toxic air of their big cities.

In Europe is more of ideological -- they are more environment conscious.

But the trend globally is unmistakable. It's not a matter of if but when.

The next revolution as car companies and the industry are saying are more EVs, less cars on the road overall, automatous-driverless transports, ride-sharing and car-hailing (leading to a carless home).

And none of that was relevant to ShinerBock's concerns. You seem to think the initial purchase price is the only limiting factor to industry wide change over. It's not. It is the infrastructure required to actually use the vehicle. You put far greater confidence in the government to make wholesale changes to infrastructure where here we cannot even fill the potholes.

ShinerBock wrote:

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:

ShinerBock wrote:

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:


And Elon Musk will not just be crazy ("eccentric" for this rich genius) but the biggest fool to bet you for those terms you outlined.

There is simply no good ROI to be had for 25% capability to supply the 2.5% EV share of car market.

Why you being a "Mr. Magoo" saying it can't be done?

Actually, I'm saying it will be done. Just not on the time frame you said and not way ahead of the economy of scale for a good ROI.

And how is that any different to what I am saying? I never said it will not be done Mr Magoo, I am only saying that it will take a lot longer than most here are thinking.

If you say so, then we both agree. But I never read anyone giving a timeline. Not even Leno -- nor the crazy-genius Elon Musk for that matter.

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:

ShinerBock wrote:

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:


And Elon Musk will not just be crazy ("eccentric" for this rich genius) but the biggest fool to bet you for those terms you outlined.

There is simply no good ROI to be had for 25% capability to supply the 2.5% EV share of car market.

Why you being a "Mr. Magoo" saying it can't be done?

Actually, I'm saying it will be done. Just not on the time frame you said and not way ahead of the economy of scale for a good ROI.

And how is that any different to what I am saying? I never said it will not be done Mr Magoo, I am only saying that it will take a lot longer than most here are thinking.

ShinerBock wrote:

Reisender wrote:


Hmmm. Maybe I’m missing understanding your post. The “charger”( or EVSE as it is correctly called as the charger is built into the car ) comes free with the car. It can operate from 120 volts 15 amp circuit up to a 40 amp 240 volt circuit. 16 amp (20 amp 240 breaker) seems to be the most common right now although many are just installing a 14-50 240 volt plug close to the parking spot.

You make it sound so easy for someone living on a budget to just install a plug close to where they are parking for the night, where their spouse is parking for the night, and where ever their kids are parking for the night. Maybe they can get up in the middle of the night and swap cars. I hope that don't have more than one kid like the average American family does either because that would be really hard. I also hope their public utilities company can handle them and hundreds of thousands of other families like them charging at the same time.

While this may all seem easy for people who are well of, it is not for families living under that $61k a year income with multiple kids. A smart idea for the kids is to have chargers at school parking lots if that school has the funds to pay for it. Most schools do not.

Eventually, with higher volume and more companies going into EV and achieving economies of scale, prices of EVs will go down.

China is doing the reverse, forcing domestic companies to start cheap and let the consumers live with their limitations. Their goals are different as they want to reduce pollution on the already toxic air of their big cities.

In Europe is more of ideological -- they are more environment conscious.

But the trend globally is unmistakable. It's not a matter of if but when.

The next revolution as car companies and the industry are saying are more EVs, less cars on the road overall, automatous-driverless transports, ride-sharing and car-hailing (leading to a carless home).

ShinerBock wrote:

Reisender wrote:


Hmmm. Maybe I’m missing understanding your post. The “charger”( or EVSE as it is correctly called as the charger is built into the car ) comes free with the car. It can operate from 120 volts 15 amp circuit up to a 40 amp 240 volt circuit. 16 amp (20 amp 240 breaker) seems to be the most common right now although many are just installing a 14-50 240 volt plug close to the parking spot.

You make it sound so easy for someone living on a budget to just install a plug close to where they are parking for the night, where their spouse is parking for the night, and where ever their kids are parking for the night. Maybe they can get up in the middle of the night and swap cars. I hope that don't have more than one kid like the average American family does either because that would be really hard. I also hope their public utilities company can handle them and hundreds of thousands of other families like them charging at the same time.

While this may all seem easy for people who are well of, it is not for families living under that $61k a year income with multiple kids. A smart idea for the kids is to have chargers at school parking lots if that school has the funds to pay for it. Most schools do not.

There are many logistics items that need to be addressed before ICE vehicles go away. Apartments, street parking, parking garages, etc. Not everyone has a garage or the ability to park near their home. The industry will change to a different energy type. But it will be much longer than some care to admit.

And how long to get a full charge on 110v? I have heard between 3-5 miles per hour. So that is not a viable option other to get to bike riding distance.

ShinerBock wrote:

Yosemite Sam1 wrote:


And Elon Musk will not just be crazy ("eccentric" for this rich genius) but the biggest fool to bet you for those terms you outlined.

There is simply no good ROI to be had for 25% capability to supply the 2.5% EV share of car market.

Why you being a "Mr. Magoo" saying it can't be done?

Actually, I'm saying it will be done. Just not on the time frame you said and not way ahead of the economy of scale for a good ROI.

Reisender wrote:


Hmmm. Maybe I’m missing understanding your post. The “charger”( or EVSE as it is correctly called as the charger is built into the car ) comes free with the car. It can operate from 120 volts 15 amp circuit up to a 40 amp 240 volt circuit. 16 amp (20 amp 240 breaker) seems to be the most common right now although many are just installing a 14-50 240 volt plug close to the parking spot.

You make it sound so easy for someone living on a budget to just install a plug close to where they are parking for the night, where their spouse is parking for the night, and where ever their kids are parking for the night. Maybe they can get up in the middle of the night and swap cars. I hope that don't have more than one kid like the average American family does either because that would be really hard. I also hope their public utilities company can handle them and hundreds of thousands of other families like them charging at the same time.

While this may all seem easy for people who are well of, it is not for families living under that $61k a year income with multiple kids. A smart idea for the kids is to have chargers at school parking lots if that school has the funds to pay for it. Most schools do not.

ShinerBock wrote:

time2roll wrote:
Your post seems to imply Tesla vehicles can only charge at a Supercharger.
Reality is most charging is done at home.

Maybe now because most Tesla or EV owners are well off and can afford such amenities. However, as market share grows, most will not be able to afford a charger or have up to date wiring in their house to be able to install a charger. While the average household income has increased rather quickly to $61k over the past few years, it is still not enough for most Americans to be able to afford a home charger.

Hmmm. Maybe I’m missunderstanding your post. The “charger”( or EVSE as it is correctly called as the charger is built into the car ) comes free with the car. It can operate from 120 volts 15 amp circuit up to a 40 amp 240 volt circuit. 16 amp (20 amp 240 breaker) seems to be the most common right now although many are just installing a 14-50 240 volt plug close to the parking spot.