It is definitely going to have to be cut out. I can poke my finger through with little effort. It is all dry right now and we just had two days of rain so that is what makes me believe that it was coming from the roof seam. Just two months ago, I resealed the three seams on the roof with eternabond because the old sealant was looking bad. I have not located anywhere else that it could come from. By looking at the marks on the fiberglass it does look like it ran down from the top. Also, I am considering just going back with carpet.