Prep for a Hurricane

I've done an A - B compare (A is the Thursday morning white field and white tracks; B is the Friday morning black field with black tracks) in my climate app. on the model runs less than 30 hours apart.

Now, remember that Joaquin really hasn't moved AT ALL over the last 2 days (perhaps 200 kilometers: its currently scrubbing clean the surface of many Bahamian islands), and will not likely move more than 100 kilometers over the next 24 hours. Note how completely different the A and B analyses are. I've only included the following 3 primary models:

-TVCN - consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models
-GFDN - United States Navy version of GFDL model using NOGAPS
and finally, the:
-GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model

You can see dramatically how utterly fickle the hurricane model runs are, given that the primary "steering mechanism" for hurricanes from more than a week ago, to about several weeks from now, is a fairly stable "Bermuda High" semi-permanent system (remember that this hurricane will rapidly drop from a Cat 4 now, to a highly steerable Cat 2 by about Saturday evening). So, this begs the question: why did the scenario A) TVCN, GFDN and TVCN vary so much from the scenario B) over such a very short period (a few dozen hours), when the macro climatological environment hadn't / didn't change and won't change significantly for at least 5+ days into the future? So really, we have very little idea where this hurricane will go over the next 2, 3, 5 days. So, better to use the precautionary principle on this one vis preparation.



Cheers,
Silver-

We are getting clobbered with rain anyway, the ground is already too saturated to even think about using those anchors, they would have just pulled out anyway.

I am glad they are saying it will stay offshore, we will see if they are right.

Got the saws all gassed up and ready to go, with these 40 mph gusts we are having from this Nor-easter we will still have some cleanup to do.

Good news is that now Joaquin is projected to head out to sea. Not that the east coast isn't going to still get clobbered with rain.....

bobndot wrote:

nycsteve wrote:

Buzzcut1 wrote:
You probably will not be driving anywhere to help anyone when the heavy winds hit. You should be hunkered down so that the only folks out there are police fire and EMS don't become an additional person they have to go help when stuff goes south. Put the TC on the truck and point it into the winds. After it dies down you can take it off and go help.

Agreed. I feel the TC is best off on the truck in heavy wind. I did Sandy and Irene recently. Had the TC on, stayed with it adjusting position to point into the wind. I got a heads up on the hourly projected wind direction from the NWS site. They were spot on not only with wind but the detailed flood projections. I honestly don't think the TC is safe off the truck exposed to heavy wind.

x3 on truck into wind...ready to use for yourself if need be .

its a nice thought to help others but...daughter had to vacate her home , lost her house and had to rebuild twice in those storms and had to use the rv to live in while vacating and thereafter.

Hey Bob, hope all is well!

nycsteve wrote:

Buzzcut1 wrote:
You probably will not be driving anywhere to help anyone when the heavy winds hit. You should be hunkered down so that the only folks out there are police fire and EMS don't become an additional person they have to go help when stuff goes south. Put the TC on the truck and point it into the winds. After it dies down you can take it off and go help.

Agreed. I feel the TC is best off on the truck in heavy wind. I did Sandy and Irene recently. Had the TC on, stayed with it adjusting position to point into the wind. I got a heads up on the hourly projected wind direction from the NWS site. They were spot on not only with wind but the detailed flood projections. I honestly don't think the TC is safe off the truck exposed to heavy wind.

x3 on truck into wind...ready to use for yourself if need be .

its a nice thought to help others but...daughter had to vacate her home , lost her house and had to rebuild twice in those storms and had to use the rv to live in while vacating and thereafter.

we arrove in OBX last Friday afternoon. Rained Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Monday might have had some time with no rain. then they started talking about this storm.
Tue was a little better. Wed was beautiful, Thur started with more rain.
Even if the storm did not hit direct, it was going to keep raining, so we headed home.

I really think the Big Wig made a difference on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge tunnel this morning in the winds.
Drive through rain all day. Back in PA now, thinking where we are going next. Maybe Raystown lake in 2 weeks.

dave17352 wrote:
rockhillmanor that is quite a statement that your anchors held your tc down in a F4 tornado! Now don't tell me it was direct hit!

yup.
Parked it along side an outbuilding taking full brunt of the wind, used the hurricane tie downs and the tornado touched down right behind the TC and my out building. Took out 5 acres of my new 4 board oak fence and sadly leveled 8 of my neighbors houses. 2 of my neighbors never did find their boats which were big ones. My TC stayed right were I put it!

Didn't take out my new outbuilding or the new run in for the horses either because we tripled up on the hurricane clips on the roofs on both buildings when they were built. Midwest Building inspector was a little amazed.

Hurricane clips and hurricane tie downs are not just for Florida hurricane's! I swear by them.

Hi Here in Huntersville I am just going to make sure it is away from the trees. I am more concerned about flying debris. We drive our campers on the highways and are blown all over the place by passing trucks. We will survive. Bill

Confirm with your insurance policy that you are well covered and see what happens

Buzzcut1 wrote:
You probably will not be driving anywhere to help anyone when the heavy winds hit. You should be hunkered down so that the only folks out there are police fire and EMS don't become an additional person they have to go help when stuff goes south. Put the TC on the truck and point it into the winds. After it dies down you can take it off and go help.

Agreed. I feel the TC is best off on the truck in heavy wind. I did Sandy and Irene recently. Had the TC on, stayed with it adjusting position to point into the wind. I got a heads up on the hourly projected wind direction from the NWS site. They were spot on not only with wind but the detailed flood projections. I honestly don't think the TC is safe off the truck exposed to heavy wind.