You are doing a very thorough comparison but don't get too bogged down in the details because the inaccuracy introduced in your test(asking folks on the Internet) will probably lead you to the same spot.
New def Cummins gets about the same mileage as my 5.9 CR, so 16-20empty depending on season, lead foot or driving conditions.
Towing a moderate weight trailer, high profile, or TC and trailer is 11-14mpg. Lots of variables tank to tank for me.
Don't presume diesel will be a buck cheaper than gas. Not sure where you live but I haven't seen that in years although it's finally a little cheaper than gas here.
15000 mi is actually a reality on these newer trucks that use a lot less egr. I'm still too old school to believe it so I use cheap oil to justify earlier oil changes, lol. In fact FCA initially supported 500hrs for fleet changes in the Arctic and then backed it down to only 400 hrs to comp for excessive idling we do with them. So 500hr/15kmi is ok by FCA. Just not me!
Bottom line same speeds towing you'll get 4 mpg better avg over a gasser in my experience. May see less than that because you'll probably push along faster w the diesel!