It would help frame this question to know how much of the diesel fuel in the world goes to ships and I know that a lot of them use bunker oil anyway which is quite different from #2 road diesel. There may well be a short term effect while the market adjusts but I feel that long term other factors are going to be at least as important. Due to cost of fuel and environmental regulations I see a lot of engines going away from diesel anyway. If you search for "electric class 8 truck" you will find a lot of companies other that Tesla working on them. Buses are going to alternative fuels already. Ford's upcoming 7X V8 seems to be aimed at giving the diesel market for medium duty and smaller trucks some options. Even mining equipment seems to be pushing to get away from diesels. From the complaints I here from local farmers about the new diesel ag equipment I would be surprised if options are not offered for them soon. I guess the bottom line is that the future is pretty dang murky right now but I expect a lot of the demand for diesel to be gone within 30 years.
