Towing a small popup with a 2017 Toyota RAV4 XLE AWD?

Like I said you've convinced yourself. You can't convince me though. When all is said and done you are gaining very little, and from my view you are giving up a lot (500# of payload and a more powerful engine). If this were for 2 people I'd say you'd be fine just the way it is. But with 2 kids, that get bigger and heavier and want to take more toys as they get older, you're going to find you're outgrowing that Rav4 by the time the lease is up.