This El Nino is particularly strong (looking at the most recent 3 month Region 3.4 number).
The "positive feedbacks" related to the pulsing above average surface Pacific (ie. very warm Pacific band just about mirroring the equator, with pools of discrete warmer water off southern-western Mexico and Guatemala, and Baja peninsula) is severely altering the weather now in North America, Mexico, Central America, and South America (west coastal regions) and up-slope areas.
...now the kicker in the realm of "forecasting" is: forecasting the "weather" lies in the realm of short-term POINT
location prediction (ie. is it going to rain, snow, ice-storm, flood, tornado, hail the size of baseballs over the top of my
trailer, or
head, or
my snowbirding route south . So, at the scale of El Nino, it would be nary impossible to make a prediction for the airspace above your trailer, house or "route"
at all. However, at the scale of "mesoscale or smaller micro-scale forecasting", the WX people can indeed forecast the weather 5 minutes, 5 hours, or ~2 days over your town (or, Mexican Pueblo) quite accurately AND, attribute the probable
macro-cause at the synoptic scale to an El Nino event (ie. due to a southern-branch jet split/diversion, due to the strong El Nino region 3.4 anomaly).
On edit: it is possible to do very, very generalized "anomaly maps" at the continental scale, showing very, very roughly where the anomalous temperatures and precipitations will occur, for example, for the 2015/2016 winter. However, at the micro-scale, it would be a stretch to point forecast what it will be like over your town or property 1, 2, 4, 6 months in advance.
Silver
2004 Chevy Silverado 2500HD 4x4 6.0L Ext/LB Tow Package 4L80E Michelin AT2s| Outfitter Caribou
