Just taking an informal Rv sales poll

PawPaw_n_Gram wrote:
If you don't travel the interstates and drive through small towns like we do, it is easy to spot a new RV park on bare gravel.

Of course a lot of signs that say "No overnight stays" "Monthly RVs only" "No stay less than 30 days" "Two weeks minimum stay" are a hint.

Sitting outside Dallas today for our yearly round of doctors appts, I've seen fourteen new RV parks in the last two year between north Dallas, Gainesville, Bonham, Greenville rectangle. None of them are on the RVParky or AllStays app, and the park owners do not want to be listed.

I even saw two other parks last week, parks that have been in business at least ten years that I know of who have moved from normal RV parks to monthly only. Both of those are on RV Parky and AllStays. Stopped and talked to one owner. He said the long term market is just too good now. My Good Sam group has stopped camping at two other parks we have visited for years, because they no longer take less than monthly rentals.

Do you remember a thread a year or two ago by a guy whose friends were wanting to build such a park in the hills west of San Antonio? I think I found it last March. Up and running, near exactly as he described it on this forum.

Though there were about four new ones in that area about 100 miles square, so that one might not have been him. You told him over and over his economic model would not work. But he kept insisting it would. I bet he's got it up and running with 10-15 spaces to start.

Jobs are growing, but what kind of jobs. In Texas and the south jobs in construction, welders, small manufacturing are going to illegals. More jobs are being transitioned from employed by a company to being employed by a sub-contractor. That way the subcontractor is responsible for I-9/EVerify and not the manufacturing company. If ICE raids the place, many of the picked up illegal workers are back at work a couple days later. Working for a new subcontracting company under a new name.

Also, the jobs move from full-time with health and retirement contributions to about 2/3 to 3/4 old pay rates with no benefits.

Toyota new major office building in the DFW area is a huge story. Less than 20% of the 'new jobs' the company will bring to the area are new hires in the 60-100K range. Almost all the 'good jobs' are people being brought in. The vast majority of 'new jobs' for local people are under 35K per year pay.

But what is the most sought after new 'business' in Texas - Buc-ee's. It's a super gas station with all sorts of food products and souvenir type items. About 80-100 temp employees, 10-15 FTE at each new location. IMHO those type jobs don't build a strong economy and train people for a future of full employment. However, they do bring in a lot of sales taxes for the community they settle in. Not much school taxes though with a 10 or 15 year property tax abatement normal.

The 'poverty belt' has always been there. But what is occurring is that people who used to have the lower end jobs are being squeezed out of affordable housing. I'm just saying that I'm seeing many people who used to have to live in poor apartments moving to RVs. Which is helping drive RV sales. That is all.

You can disagree with me. You can disagree with all the statistics that show the economy is growing. But I take offense when you spout lies to try and discredit me.
Yes, I remember a thread about someone's friends wanting to build out a park a site or two at a time. I also remember they didn't plan on getting permits, building a legal septic system and several other things that were questionable at best. Now you claim you "may" have found it and they are doing fine. By your own admission you don't know if what you supposedly found is that park or not. You further would have no way of knowing if it was successful or not. Even if all the sites were occupied, it could still be a financial disaster. To imply that an unknown park, with unknown financial success that is located somewhere in Texas proves I don't know what I am talking about is dishonest on your part. The fact you are willing to make up those statements tells me you are willing to make up things like those supposed 14 new parks. I doubt much of what is in your posts is actually true.

If you don't travel the interstates and drive through small towns like we do, it is easy to spot a new RV park on bare gravel.

Of course a lot of signs that say "No overnight stays" "Monthly RVs only" "No stay less than 30 days" "Two weeks minimum stay" are a hint.

Sitting outside Dallas today for our yearly round of doctors appts, I've seen fourteen new RV parks in the last two year between north Dallas, Gainesville, Bonham, Greenville rectangle. None of them are on the RVParky or AllStays app, and the park owners do not want to be listed.

I even saw two other parks last week, parks that have been in business at least ten years that I know of who have moved from normal RV parks to monthly only. Both of those are on RV Parky and AllStays. Stopped and talked to one owner. He said the long term market is just too good now. My Good Sam group has stopped camping at two other parks we have visited for years, because they no longer take less than monthly rentals.

Do you remember a thread a year or two ago by a guy whose friends were wanting to build such a park in the hills west of San Antonio? I think I found it last March. Up and running, near exactly as he described it on this forum.

Though there were about four new ones in that area about 100 miles square, so that one might not have been him. You told him over and over his economic model would not work. But he kept insisting it would. I bet he's got it up and running with 10-15 spaces to start.

Jobs are growing, but what kind of jobs. In Texas and the south jobs in construction, welders, small manufacturing are going to illegals. More jobs are being transitioned from employed by a company to being employed by a sub-contractor. That way the subcontractor is responsible for I-9/EVerify and not the manufacturing company. If ICE raids the place, many of the picked up illegal workers are back at work a couple days later. Working for a new subcontracting company under a new name.

Also, the jobs move from full-time with health and retirement contributions to about 2/3 to 3/4 old pay rates with no benefits.

Toyota new major office building in the DFW area is a huge story. Less than 20% of the 'new jobs' the company will bring to the area are new hires in the 60-100K range. Almost all the 'good jobs' are people being brought in. The vast majority of 'new jobs' for local people are under 35K per year pay.

But what is the most sought after new 'business' in Texas - Buc-ee's. It's a super gas station with all sorts of food products and souvenir type items. About 80-100 temp employees, 10-15 FTE at each new location. IMHO those type jobs don't build a strong economy and train people for a future of full employment. However, they do bring in a lot of sales taxes for the community they settle in. Not much school taxes though with a 10 or 15 year property tax abatement normal.

The 'poverty belt' has always been there. But what is occurring is that people who used to have the lower end jobs are being squeezed out of affordable housing. I'm just saying that I'm seeing many people who used to have to live in poor apartments moving to RVs. Which is helping drive RV sales. That is all.

PawPaw_n_Gram wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:
South of Saint Louis Missouri

I did a bad job of defining the area. I should have said

If you draw a line across the country even with St Louis Missouri, the area south of that line and mostly east of the Rockies

The biggest regions I've seen the growth of long-term residents only RV parks is in the states of Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. More of those parks the farther south a person goes until about 150 miles from the Gulf Coast. Though I have seen a few in California and Washington State within the past two years.

Yes, some parts of the economy are doing well. But the gap between the population doing well and the population falling closer and closer to poverty is growing.

That is in my opinion where many new RVs are going.

Travel trailers under $40,000 list price, low 30's sale price. I've even seen dealers who deliver new and used purchases to such an RV park. People buying them who do not own a vehicle capable of towing the trailer.

Those small travel trailers under 32 or 33 feet in length appear to be the largest numbers being sold to me.

So you travel the country surveying RV parks checking to see if they are filling with people who have no other place to live? And you apparently check out all the arriving RVs to see if they are being delivered by a dealer rather than being brought in by your average (or I guess in your world, the odd) RV traveler.
BTW, park model trailers are almost always delivered by dealers. They require specialized towing set ups and often pilot cars. Park models are used in place of rental cabins for many people. They are recreational properties, not housing of last resort. Other people site regular RVs seasonally, again as recreational properties. They may very well have the dealer deliver it since they don't intend to move it on a regular basis. Heck, maybe they are going to buy a new tow vehicle and are waiting for the 2019s. Just because a dealer is delivering something does not mean they buyers are otherwise destitute.
You can always find exceptions. Heck, there is no question there are people who are living in their car. Do you make the similar leap that the current record level of auto sales is because more and more people are living in their cars?
As for your newly drawn poverty belt, that area includes cities like Atlanta. Unless something has changed in the last few months, it is hardly a poster city for urban decay. Arkansas and Mississippi have always lagged the nation in income and you can always find pockets of poverty in every state in the union. However, the economic data, as well your own observations (housing prices are rising, everything is more expensive) show that the economy in the US is strong. People who want to work are finding work. If you were to spend as much effort in examining the people who are displaced as you apparently spend trying to find RV parks that are supposedly filling with those displaced people, I think you will find the real reasons for their troubles, and it isn't the current economy.

fla-gypsy wrote:

PawPaw_n_Gram wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:
South of Saint Louis Missouri

I did a bad job of defining the area. I should have said

If you draw a line across the country even with St Louis Missouri, the area south of that line and mostly east of the Rockies

The biggest regions I've seen the growth of long-term residents only RV parks is in the states of Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. More of those parks the farther south a person goes until about 150 miles from the Gulf Coast. Though I have seen a few in California and Washington State within the past two years.

Yes, some parts of the economy are doing well. But the gap between the population doing well and the population falling closer and closer to poverty is growing.

That is in my opinion where many new RVs are going.

Travel trailers under $40,000 list price, low 30's sale price. I've even seen dealers who deliver new and used purchases to such an RV park. People buying them who do not own a vehicle capable of towing the trailer.

Those small travel trailers under 32 or 33 feet in length appear to be the largest numbers being sold to me.

All indications are that wages are rising, the economy is growing faster than it has in decades, unemployment is going down even with more and more entering the job market, fewer people are using poverty programs like welfare and food stamps, etc etc. More Americans are working now than at any time in history. Turn off the tv and open your eyes.

Wages are stagnant due to inflation. Interest rates for RV's are now at 6.24% to 6.75%. Prices for RV's are climbing faster than wages.
My 5th wheel had an MSRP or $33K back in 2013. It's now $48K. And there's absolutely not $15K worth of improvements.
IMO eventually all those things will slow the sales down.
Last year my son bought a new home. At the time people were so paranoid that they wouldn't find a house that they were bidding the price up. Many were selling in days or weeks. Right now in my neighborhood homes are sitting for many weeks to months. Prices have outpaced wages and rising interest rates have taken many buyers out of buying range.

PawPaw_n_Gram wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:
South of Saint Louis Missouri

I did a bad job of defining the area. I should have said

If you draw a line across the country even with St Louis Missouri, the area south of that line and mostly east of the Rockies

The biggest regions I've seen the growth of long-term residents only RV parks is in the states of Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. More of those parks the farther south a person goes until about 150 miles from the Gulf Coast. Though I have seen a few in California and Washington State within the past two years.

Yes, some parts of the economy are doing well. But the gap between the population doing well and the population falling closer and closer to poverty is growing.

That is in my opinion where many new RVs are going.

Travel trailers under $40,000 list price, low 30's sale price. I've even seen dealers who deliver new and used purchases to such an RV park. People buying them who do not own a vehicle capable of towing the trailer.

Those small travel trailers under 32 or 33 feet in length appear to be the largest numbers being sold to me.

All indications are that wages are rising, the economy is growing faster than it has in decades, unemployment is going down even with more and more entering the job market, fewer people are using poverty programs like welfare and food stamps, etc etc. More Americans are working now than at any time in history. Turn off the tv and open your eyes.

westernrvparkowner wrote:
South of Saint Louis Missouri

I did a bad job of defining the area. I should have said

If you draw a line across the country even with St Louis Missouri, the area south of that line and mostly east of the Rockies

The biggest regions I've seen the growth of long-term residents only RV parks is in the states of Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. More of those parks the farther south a person goes until about 150 miles from the Gulf Coast. Though I have seen a few in California and Washington State within the past two years.

Yes, some parts of the economy are doing well. But the gap between the population doing well and the population falling closer and closer to poverty is growing.

That is in my opinion where many new RVs are going.

Travel trailers under $40,000 list price, low 30's sale price. I've even seen dealers who deliver new and used purchases to such an RV park. People buying them who do not own a vehicle capable of towing the trailer.

Those small travel trailers under 32 or 33 feet in length appear to be the largest numbers being sold to me.

The RVIA loves to tout those sales numbers, it's all about keeping the stockholders happy. The fact is even if the RV Industry surpasses 600K in yearly shipments that is not some huge miracle when compared to pre recession numbers. How can finally getting to 150K more produced yearly than they did pre recession mean anything when looking at the big picture? Its 150000 more....not 1.5 million. Add to that the number of registered RVs in actual use is a constant number and has been for years at about 9 million. Personally I dont see a huge increase in PA state park occupancy over what we experienced throughout the 2000's. We still manage to get our preferred sites in our preferred parks consistently and have yet to need to make other plans.

Historical RV Data

I'm not buying a new one. I waiting for the next big market downturn and thats when I'll look for a slightly used one. Right now all the good stuff is demanding too much money. Overpriced IMO because it's a sellers market for new RV's. Tough getting 30% off the good stuff. Many MFG's are backlogged.
It is amazing though to see so many full RV lots. One local dealer now has four lots around the state. When we bought our 1st TT from them 9 years ago it was a smaller mom and pop company.
I gots a feeling many RV dealers are going to go under in the next downturn unless they can time out the downturn and downsize before it bottoms out.

Well, according to the government, there are 10,000 of us turning retirement age every day in the U.S. This started about 3 1/2 years ago. Quite a number of these folk are buying RV's.
The Elks lodge I help camp host at has been overloaded for the past three years with travelers. Most of these people are sporting some nice rigs.
The RV industry has been tooting about the 500,000 or so RV deliveries for the year. Around the same number for the past couple years.
Now, some will differ with this opinion, but the about 4% unemployment rate nationwide, the increased GDP, and the higher wages companies are having to pay, has SOME people optimistic.
Now, we're so a twitter that we just bought our eighth (8th) RV two months ago! While we were giving the dealer our green stamps, about a dozen people came in shopping RV's. On a Wednesday.

Ya know, sometime people are just like talking to a carrot. Seeing a big inventory setting on the lots in Flordia???? Up north In the winter I see a big inventory of rock salt setting in Lowe's parking lots. Must no be selling any. My son-in-law works for Winnebago and he said that they cant keep up with the builds.