NY Times - As Elkhart goes

Your first problem is you're reading the NYT. Once you discount for that there is nothing left worth reading.

troubledwaters wrote:
Your first problem is you're reading the NYT. Once you discount for that there is nothing left worth reading.

Not gonna argue with you.

All the RV lots I've driven by in the past 5 weeks on the road from New England to the mid west have been packed with units. Went by a Camping World in Rapid City yesterday and I would not have been able to get turned around in their parking lot. I think dealers over-bought and don't have the personnel to put units out the door. A downturn in shipments in June would be normal. Anyone who wants to use the RV in the summer would have bought already by June.

Not gonna' argue either, but I could see how the Elkhart factor could be a canary in the coal mine as an indicator of the RV scene.

d3500ram wrote:
Not gonna' argue either, but I could see how the Elkhart factor could be a canary in the coal mine as an indicator of the RV scene.

Market saturation. The stats don't lie. They created a huge bubble and raked in the cash while its all trumped up by marketing via the RVIA. Sure they shipped 504000 units in 17...a record. Thats 74000 and change more than 16 at 430000. Not much to crow about however when they sold 390000 in 2007 and well over 300000 for quite a few years prior. The recession knocked them into reality, and they're getting set up to be knocked back to reality again in the near future. It took them 8 years to get back to pre recession levels in 2015.



Selling 500000+ units yearly can not be sustained no matter how much they wish it can, and no matter how much horse poopage propoganda spews from the RVIA. The magic number for yearly sales is somewhere between 300K and 400K at this point in time with current interest rates. Just a slight uptick in interest rates knocks that back a bit progressively and interest rates will be ticking up for at least the next 4 or 5 years if not 10.

RV SHIPMENT HISTORICAL DATA

We have a constant stream of new units coming into and out of the dealership where I work. Looks like things are in fine shape in my neck of the woods. I also don't believe anything the media says.

Ah yes. Faux News has the latest truth.

Dave5143 wrote:

troubledwaters wrote:
Your first problem is you're reading the NYT. Once you discount for that there is nothing left worth reading.

Not gonna argue with you.

I too question when will we reach the peak of this bubble, though as long as the overall economy continues to grow, I don't think we are anywhere close, though the rate of growth may slow. I attribute this to a few factors, first build quality or the lack of it likely means the service life of RV's they are churning out will be shorter, as many of us know rot from water intrusion tends to be the number one killer of all types of RV's. Second the US population is growing, look at those historical sales figures, then compare them to US population growth. Looking at RVIA's historical numbers https://www.rvia.org/historical-rv-data the first year they produced more than 300,000 units was 1999 with 321,000 units (the same number that were produced in 2013), however the estimates suggest the US Population has grown by nearly 50 million people since 1999 (278 vs 325 million today, which is over 15% growth), so population adjusted those 1999 production levels would equal to 375,000 today, this of course fails to account for shorter service life of todays units. It should also be noted that in 1999 the 2007 period was fairly stable, except for the dot com bubble bust, which only caused a 6 & 14% downturn 2 years in a row, vs the 9,32,30% drops when the bottom fell out in late 2007, where production went from 390,000 in 2006 to 165,000 in 2009.

azdryheat wrote:
We have a constant stream of new units coming into and out of the dealership where I work. Looks like things are in fine shape in my neck of the woods. I also don't believe anything the media says.

You're in Arizona.....the second largest snowbird attractor for retired geezers behind Florida. Once the temps drop below 50 in Northern states, and campgrounds turn the water off and lock the gates, the sales drop faster than the temperatures lol. Thats why they have RV shows in Jan/Feb. A friend here in PA who is a second generation dealer does not order in a unit for lot stock after July unless its a special order for a buyer. He starts ordering lot stock after the Pittsburgh RV show in January for delivery in late March or April. For every one he sells at the show he typically orders 2 more for lot stock for the remainder of the season and based on how the stock sells he may order more mid summer, but nothing after Aug 1.

troubledwaters wrote:
Your first problem is you're reading the NYT. Once you discount for that there is nothing left worth reading.

Agree