The beginning of a trend? Tipping point reached?

[Ralph_Cramden]

We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.
Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?
That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.

[Cloud_Dancer]

If I don't see signs that it's working, it's not working. I was seeing signs that something was working, and now,....not so much. Like a certain combination of adjustments was making my racecar work pretty good, except that I need a little better performance. How do I decide which part of the combination to change? I wish that I could afford to hire someone who knows more than I do. I wonder if Robeto knows?

[badsix]

memtb wrote:
Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs? It seems that the majority of fault finding points at the tariffs. I may be wrong....but I think the tariffs, are ultimately a good thing. They may cause discomfort at first.....but will help long term!

correct, the POTUS I think knows what he's doing, just give it some time.
Jay D.

[2012Coleman]

JIMNLIN wrote:

Yeah both load board webs I'm on are constantly running adds for rv transporters especially Elkhart area.
I was talking with a transporter the other day at the truck stop next to me on I-44. He had a brand new roll back with a short TT on the deck and towing another. He said his company couldn't find enough transporters to keep up with all the units being made. Both his TTs he was carrying came out of a rented pasture.

The RV manufacturing sky is not falling. Capacity to haul loads is down, prices to haul them are going up. I work in the industry, and bonus will be sweet this year.

[Ralph_Cramden]

DOUBLE TURDS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



RVIA

South Bend Tribune

Month over month 2018 to 2017.......... May -1.7%, down 11.4% in June, up 10.9% July, then down 12.5% August and down 29% in September.

Was just a matter of time. 3 months to go that are typically the slow season for sales, and flat year over year @ +.08% 18 to 17. Ahhhh poo.

The snowball just may be starting its trip down the hill.

Could be tariffs, rising interest rates, or just possibly the effects of the quality construction and exemplary customer service and support having worn off?

[Ralph_Cramden]

Ahhhhhhh Poop! Down 12.5% for the month😉

Year over year still a 3.9% gain so far, but far from the 15.1% gain enjoyed August 2017 over 2016, or the 33% year over year gain between 2016 and 2015.

The feds just raised interest rates for the 3rd time this year, and made it clear they will again.

[Newbiecampers]

We ended up purchasing our motorhome from a dealer with multiple locations around the country.

By mid-summer last year, there was only one unit of the model we wanted remaining throughout all of their dealerships.

This year, here it is the end of September, and they have 13 left.

Nothing scientific, but a slice of evidence perhaps.

[timmac]

Ralph Cramden wrote:
We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.
Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?
That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.

Part of the trend is something many don't know as well, the newer retirees and many millennials cant afford pricy new RV's and many are now buying used school buses and converting them, that is hot right now, also there is a lot of good used RV's for sale at half the cost of a new one..

Used car sale prices are up cause new car prices are getting high so your clean used car/truck in your driveway has gone up in value in the past 12 months, new car sells are down..


My clean low mileage 2004 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon has increased in value over the past 2 years just by seeing what dealers and people are asking for theirs..


Seen the price of a new Wrangler, its crazy..

[irishtom29]

drsteve wrote:


Econ 101 says otherwise, and so does history. Tariffs were one of the triggers for the Great Depression. There are no winners in a trade war.

History shows that tariffs and protectionism are beneficial in some situations, especially when nations are first developing industry. Like the United States before the War of the Rebellion. I’m not arguing they’re beneficial now but to say they never are is wrong.

[drsteve]

jrobert01 wrote:

drsteve wrote:

memtb wrote:
Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs? It seems that the majority of fault finding points at the tariffs. I may be wrong....but I think the tariffs, are ultimately a good thing. They may cause discomfort at first.....but will help long term!

Econ 101 says otherwise, and so does history. Tariffs were one of the triggers for the Great Depression. There are no winners in a trade war.

Should we just be satisfied with unfair trade?

Should we do something stupid that will make things worse while helping no one? If there's something unfair, you solve it with negotiated solutions, not by coercing your trading partners.

[Pirate1]

jrobert01 wrote:

drsteve wrote:

memtb wrote:
Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs? It seems that the majority of fault finding points at the tariffs. I may be wrong....but I think the tariffs, are ultimately a good thing. They may cause discomfort at first.....but will help long term!

Econ 101 says otherwise, and so does history. Tariffs were one of the triggers for the Great Depression. There are no winners in a trade war.

Should we just be satisfied with unfair trade?

Will tariffs address wages in China ($1 per hour?) vs USA ($10 per hour). Business want a deal even if that means hiring cheap overseas labor. I will be watching to see how this all pans out.

[jrobert01]

drsteve wrote:

memtb wrote:
Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs? It seems that the majority of fault finding points at the tariffs. I may be wrong....but I think the tariffs, are ultimately a good thing. They may cause discomfort at first.....but will help long term!

Econ 101 says otherwise, and so does history. Tariffs were one of the triggers for the Great Depression. There are no winners in a trade war.

Should we just be satisfied with unfair trade?

[T18skyguy]

Big Katuna wrote:
Big adjustment coming.

Very true. With the Turkish lira falling 70%, some top analysts say it is the canary in the coal mine, and there will be cascading events throughout the financial system. It won't be a banking crisis this time, it will be a financial market crisis.

[elidodge]

The electronic logs shoved down the truckin industrys throat is the culpert. No body can get drivers. I was luck and could retire. Let some bode else do the job

[goducks10]

And pick any debt sector and it's probably near or at record levels.

[down_home]

I'm living the reason. Inflation/devaluation.
In 2208 when wife retired everything looked great with a lot of disposable income.
Sine then, I don't care about official numbers, cost of everything has multiplied.
About 4 times and ore on food ,eating out, or in, cost of vehicles demanded by Wall Street increased margins, monopolies and so on. Our 2005 Dualie Diesel F350Lariat cost us 28,000.00 and change after trade. Today 70,000.000 plus.
Diesel fuel was less than a hundred dollars a tank in 2006-2007. Now new spec diesel approaches 400.00 a tank.
Tires for Mh doubled and a bit more since 08. same for cars and Pickup.
And everything else including fuel taxes, property taxes and utilities, and income taxes on SS Income, and Medicare with smaller COLAS figured to beat Americans instead of restoring SS Fund, raided by Politicians.