The Future of Pricing

[lawnspecialties]

Although on many peoples' minds, I don't see much discussion. But I may have just missed it.

We sold our last toy hauler and F450 four years ago. Our youngest son started college so we figured we'd step back and punt. Use that money to help with college and save up for our next toy hauler just for me and the wife. I honestly figured (in 2018) that we would easily have been in another toy hauler by now. But then Covid hit.

I paid $72,000 for our Vengeance 40D12 in 2016. I paid just under $80,000 out the door for my 2017 F450 with the Ford extended warranty. Now, a similar toy hauler is at least $50,000 more and the truck is pushing $100,000 if you can find one. As badly as I miss it, I just can't justify this.

I don't think we'll ever see the prices I paid four years ago; especially on the campers. But will it get much better? Our dreams were possibly getting into a Luxe this time but now a Momentum, Valor, Cyclone, etc. are running around those 2018 Luxe prices. And now Luxe is hovering $250,000.

My biggest fear is if I give in and buy something, within six months the market crashes and I have horrible buyer's remorse. I know RVs aren't an economical investment but at the same time, I feel like I'm waiting to time the market like Bitcoin.

Any opinions on the future of RV pricing? The same thing for trucks?

[wa8yxm]

shelbyfv wrote:
Don't think the current economic situation is unique to any one state or even to the US. Global pandemic, global problems. Begrudging someone a minimum wage is a distraction. https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-rent-can-i-afford-on-minimum-wage-4175100

You are correct.. People blame this or that politician for the high prices.. Fact is it's not, usually, the politicians... And the high prices are world wide for the most part (Some things are better elsewhere).

But beyond that.. The discussion is political.

The lack of a living wage law and the fact that though rent goes up and up and up, corporate profits likewise, the income of the uber rich also.. Minimum wage last went up in the 1970s. That is the fault of Politicians.

[WinMinnie02]

This thread is going off the rails. Not so simple question to buy or not to buy now, not sure anyone can answer the question to OP's liking. OP what is your decision.

[shelbyfv]

Don't think the current economic situation is unique to any one state or even to the US. Global pandemic, global problems. Begrudging someone a minimum wage is a distraction. https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-rent-can-i-afford-on-minimum-wage-4175100

[PButler96]

shelbyfv wrote:
Yep, that will surely keep things stirred up!

That and idiotic mandates like a certain state now going to mandate fast food workers minimum wage must be $22 per hour, a raise of $7 per hour above the $15 they mandated a short while ago. Anyone for a $25 Big Mac and fries?

[shelbyfv]

Yep, that will surely keep things stirred up!

[cptqueeg]

shelbyfv wrote:
It's interesting to speculate but not much confidence in predicting the future. Remember all the drama about fuel prices a few months ago? Best estimates are 6.5 million deaths world wide from COVID. Unprecedented peace time disruption of manufacturing and shipping. Can't expect to escape some pain but it's not reasonable to expect it will continue indefinitely. Chins up, seems as if most of us will make it through.

Agree w your thoughts but would add we now add wartime issues w a huge producer of fuel and 2 major producers of grain, both items are the bedrock upon which the world economy is built.

[shelbyfv]

It's interesting to speculate but not much confidence in predicting the future. Remember all the drama about fuel prices a few months ago? Best estimates are 6.5 million deaths world wide from COVID. Unprecedented peace time disruption of manufacturing and shipping. Can't expect to escape some pain but it's not reasonable to expect it will continue indefinitely. Chins up, seems as if most of us will make it through.

[RVRoamer428]

future, well heck we already added like 40-60% in the grocery store, see gas now and then see everything going up. New financial/economics coming at US ALL full speed, gonna be scary as hell and up up up more IT ALL goes. Come on all, we all see it....don't pretend or deny what is going down cause it is going down right now on us....yikes.

your 20k camper is gonna be 40k and your 50-60k truck is gonna be 100k easily as they are now IF ya want more power point blank.

I tell ya guys, me worried LOL on my darn wallet moving forward for sure

not a scare post but a reality post as it is going down right now and what future, even higher, of course it HAS to be that 🙂

[nickthehunter]

One guys talking year over year, the other guys talking last 4 months. Comparing Apples to Oranges.
By your own chart, March prices are higher than April's; it's probably safe to assume January to April's prices were also rising.
So year over year - who knows where it will end up. And why are we comparing home prices to RV prices to begin with? More Apples and Oranges. One is "overall" an appreciating asset and the other is a depreciating toy, similar to selling your 10 year old bicycle on ebay.

[SJ-Chris]

propchef wrote:

SJ-Chris wrote:

propchef wrote:

SJ-Chris wrote:
Just one data point....

Using Cruise America rental fleet sales as a data point, RV prices are still up 60-70% from 2019. I bought a couple then, and I know what they are selling for now.

On a slightly related note...Home prices shot up incredible amounts over the last 3 years, and now they are taking large steps down in price.

I expect RV prices will reduce over the coming year or two. Not to the same levels they were, but lower than they are now.

-Chris

Large steps down? Not in San Jose (from your sig) where Redfin reports sales prices .8% UP over last year. What's been slowing is the pace of sales (number of units sold) and the rate of price increases.

I've seen a settling of the market, but nothing approaching "large steps down."

I happen to be an active real estate Broker in the Bay Area for over 20 years...I have multiple listings in contract at this very moment. Believe me when I tell you, Yes there is a significant reduction in home values going on at the moment (starting ~April/May when interest rates started shooting up). Here's some data I just put together...



I've got my own opinions about what will happen over the next months and year or two, but as this is a RV forum I'll keep it to myself. Feel free to PM me if you'd like.

Happy Camping all!
Chris

Here you're comparing asking vs selling price, not year-over-year sales comparisons.

Even with this example, we do NOT see "large steps down," we see selling below the asking price.

The sky is not falling.

I'm NOT comparing Asking price vs Selling price. Asking price is somewhat irrelevant. Selling price is ultimately the indicator of what buyers are willing to pay for a home. If you look, in the data I provided, at what homes ACTUALLY sold for in April vs August you will see an Average price drop of $229,000 (14.7% drop). You can also see in the rightmost column that the Average $/sf that buyers are willing to pay has dropped from $976/sf to $831/sf (although $/sf isn't really the best measure of value).

Yes, prices have dropped from their peak of earlier this year by almost 15%. That's a decent step down in my opinion.

Is the sky falling? ABSOLUTELY NOT! I do agree with you on that. In the last 2.5 years in particular home prices have shot up an incredible (unsustainable) amount. So even though prices have dropped ~15% in the last 4-5 months overall prices are still up from where they were 2.5 years ago. I suspect they could drop further (some, nothing crazy) from where they are at now (especially if interest rates continue rising and if the economy stalls, especially high tech), but this is likely just a correction from over-inflation of price during the last couple of years.

At some point in the future, as the cycle tends to do, interest rates will fall and the economy will improve. History shows us that when that happens home prices start their climb once again to new heights as demand increases. Thus Bay Area home prices trend upwards.

-Chris

[propchef]

SJ-Chris wrote:

propchef wrote:

SJ-Chris wrote:
Just one data point....

Using Cruise America rental fleet sales as a data point, RV prices are still up 60-70% from 2019. I bought a couple then, and I know what they are selling for now.

On a slightly related note...Home prices shot up incredible amounts over the last 3 years, and now they are taking large steps down in price.

I expect RV prices will reduce over the coming year or two. Not to the same levels they were, but lower than they are now.

-Chris

Large steps down? Not in San Jose (from your sig) where Redfin reports sales prices .8% UP over last year. What's been slowing is the pace of sales (number of units sold) and the rate of price increases.

I've seen a settling of the market, but nothing approaching "large steps down."

I happen to be an active real estate Broker in the Bay Area for over 20 years...I have multiple listings in contract at this very moment. Believe me when I tell you, Yes there is a significant reduction in home values going on at the moment (starting ~April/May when interest rates started shooting up). Here's some data I just put together...



I've got my own opinions about what will happen over the next months and year or two, but as this is a RV forum I'll keep it to myself. Feel free to PM me if you'd like.

Happy Camping all!
Chris

Here you're comparing asking vs selling price, not year-over-year sales comparisons.

Even with this example, we do NOT see "large steps down," we see selling below the asking price.

The sky is not falling.

[JaxDad]

lawnspecialties wrote:

JaxDad wrote:
One of the interesting trends I’m seeing happen up here ‘north of the border’ is vendors (both private and stealerships) starting to refer to units as “cottages”.

I asked a sales person (I was there getting parts and wandered out into the sales floor) and he made no bones about explaining it, “a traditional ‘cottage’ starts at $750k and it makes an RV seem like a screaming bargain regardless of the price.”.

:S

You can get a new 3000 sq ft house here in central NC for $750K.

As the old saying goes, the 3 most important factors in real estate are; location, location and location.

Neighbours of ours severed a new (vacant) lot off their side yard this spring, just over 300’ frontage and just barely 2 acres, the bare minimum allowed.

The lot sold in 4 days at 20% over the asking price, just under $4 million.

Cannuckistan bucks though, so a mere US$3 million.

[dedmiston]

lawnspecialties wrote:
and 2. they hardly ever have toy haulers anymore.

You used to be pretty active in the Toy Hauler forum back when it was thriving, but I can't remember what kind of toys you had. What are you hauling these days?

[SJ-Chris]

propchef wrote:

SJ-Chris wrote:
Just one data point....

Using Cruise America rental fleet sales as a data point, RV prices are still up 60-70% from 2019. I bought a couple then, and I know what they are selling for now.

On a slightly related note...Home prices shot up incredible amounts over the last 3 years, and now they are taking large steps down in price.

I expect RV prices will reduce over the coming year or two. Not to the same levels they were, but lower than they are now.

-Chris

Large steps down? Not in San Jose (from your sig) where Redfin reports sales prices .8% UP over last year. What's been slowing is the pace of sales (number of units sold) and the rate of price increases.

I've seen a settling of the market, but nothing approaching "large steps down."

I happen to be an active real estate Broker in the Bay Area for over 20 years...I have multiple listings in contract at this very moment. Believe me when I tell you, Yes there is a significant reduction in home values going on at the moment (starting ~April/May when interest rates started shooting up). Here's some data I just put together...



I've got my own opinions about what will happen over the next months and year or two, but as this is a RV forum I'll keep it to myself. Feel free to PM me if you'd like.

Happy Camping all!
Chris