Dealers lots are filling up

[Pbutler97]

Dealers lots around Ohio/western PA are filling up with certain models. Not many heavy duty trucks but I'm seeing a few Chevy and GMC 2500's sit for weeks before being sold and a lot in the pipeline. 1/2 tons are everywhere. Monitoring black book trade and used retail values, they're dropping like a stone. The Dealers I have recently talked to are holding at MSRP on new with one willing to go below MSRP on a 2500 that has been sitting for over 6 weeks. Expect them all to have to start dealing again. Sales are down and dropping. No wonder if you've seen the prices at the grocery store recently and follow the number of companies announcing layoffs or hiring freezes.

[JALLEN4]

Grit dog wrote:

JALLEN4 wrote:
In Sept 2019 there were 3.45 million new units in dealer inventories. That is a number that has been over 4 million in the past. At the end of September 2022 dealers had 1.23 million units in stock which would include those ordered sold but not yet delivered or reported sold. One might imagine there is a long way to go before you could consider them plentiful!

Love obscure stats from the Googler, like when announcers find weird stats about athletes …
“Tom Brady has won 8 out of 10 games on a Monday night with a full moon…” type of thing.

All I know is around here, one of the MOST expensive places in the country to buy, well, about anything except seafood maybe, RV lots that were empty for 2 years are chock full, just about every dealer. Car dealers are filling back up. Very quickly and noticeably.
And since I happen to be truck shopping, have noticed that in other parts of the country, some trucks (half tons) are being offered at significantly lower than msrp again, and that trend increases by what seems to be weekly.
I’m increasingly confident that by the next presidential election, the country’s economy will be sitting approximately at the Rio Grande river! (It will have gone that far south…lol)
Unfortunate for some. I can’t wait for it to happen from a personal financial perspective.

I am sure you are right. It is much more accurate to ride around in your neighborhood and make your own assessment instead of looking at actual statistics. As a forty year new car dealer now retired, I somewhat know how this deal works and I will stick with actual real numbers!

[Pbutler97]

BB_TX wrote:

Pbutler97 wrote:

Me Again wrote:

Pbutler97 wrote:
More 3/4 tons are sold with gas engines than diesel by a longshot regardless.

Could you show us where you got that statistic? That certainly is not the norm in Western States.

I know that statistic from dealing with sales managers over the last 20 years or so when it comes to fleet/commercial sales. Where did you get your statistic that it's not the norm in Western states? Visual observation on the highway?

The fleet sales is what pushes the numbers toward gas rather than diesel. Most 250/2500 work trucks in this area are gas. Privately owned trucks are more likely diesel even if they are used for nothing more than daily drivers. That may change with the costs of diesel on top of the cost of the engine.

Contrary to what some think, fleet and commercial sales make up the majority of the heavy duty truck market.

Bionic Man wrote:


And I’ll call BS on the 2500 gasser comment.

I'll call BS on your BS call.

[Bionic_Man]

Maybe it’s a regional thing, but our local auto dealerships certainly are still very short of inventory.

And I’ll call BS on the 2500 gasser comment. I’ve seen reports in the past from RAM that an astronomical % of their sales were Cummins. And you can see it driving around too. Regardless of brand, if it’s a heavy duty it almost always has a diesel in it.

[Grit_dog]

shelbyfv wrote:
"all this bull is man made...." :? Well, the auto manufacturers did screw up with the chips. Otherwise, I expect that pesky virus that's killed 6.5 million so far may deserve some blame.:W Anyway, good to see improving inventory. I needed to buy a new vehicle this summer and it was the first time my choices have been limited by what was actually available.

I think you meant to say the over reaction to and subsequent gouging from that pesky virus…

[shelbyfv]

"all this bull is man made...." :? Well, the auto manufacturers did screw up with the chips. Otherwise, I expect that pesky virus that's killed 6.5 million so far may deserve some blame.:W Anyway, good to see improving inventory. I needed to buy a new vehicle this summer and it was the first time my choices have been limited by what was actually available.

[midnightsadie]

and I hope they stay on the lots were being taken to the price of everything. all this bull is man made.

[Lwiddis]

Interesting report, Pbutler. I’ll check my area.

[Grit_dog]

JALLEN4 wrote:
In Sept 2019 there were 3.45 million new units in dealer inventories. That is a number that has been over 4 million in the past. At the end of September 2022 dealers had 1.23 million units in stock which would include those ordered sold but not yet delivered or reported sold. One might imagine there is a long way to go before you could consider them plentiful!

Love obscure stats from the Googler, like when announcers find weird stats about athletes …
“Tom Brady has won 8 out of 10 games on a Monday night with a full moon…” type of thing.

All I know is around here, one of the MOST expensive places in the country to buy, well, about anything except seafood maybe, RV lots that were empty for 2 years are chock full, just about every dealer. Car dealers are filling back up. Very quickly and noticeably.
And since I happen to be truck shopping, have noticed that in other parts of the country, some trucks (half tons) are being offered at significantly lower than msrp again, and that trend increases by what seems to be weekly.
I’m increasingly confident that by the next presidential election, the country’s economy will be sitting approximately at the Rio Grande river! (It will have gone that far south…lol)
Unfortunate for some. I can’t wait for it to happen from a personal financial perspective.

[BB_TX]

Pbutler97 wrote:

Me Again wrote:

Pbutler97 wrote:
More 3/4 tons are sold with gas engines than diesel by a longshot regardless.

Could you show us where you got that statistic? That certainly is not the norm in Western States.

I know that statistic from dealing with sales managers over the last 20 years or so when it comes to fleet/commercial sales. Where did you get your statistic that it's not the norm in Western states? Visual observation on the highway?

The fleet sales is what pushes the numbers toward gas rather than diesel. Most 250/2500 work trucks in this area are gas. Privately owned trucks are more likely diesel even if they are used for nothing more than daily drivers. That may change with the costs of diesel on top of the cost of the engine.

[JALLEN4]

In Sept 2019 there were 3.45 million new units in dealer inventories. That is a number that has been over 4 million in the past. At the end of September 2022 dealers had 1.23 million units in stock which would include those ordered sold but not yet delivered or reported sold. One might imagine there is a long way to go before you could consider them plentiful!

[JIMNLIN]

Dealers lots here in my part of the state are still few if any new models of the brand they carry. Most lots are still 75 percent empty.
However go by a Ford dealers lot and we see used Ford/GM Ram/and even Toyoto trucks.Same with a GM dealer.
These are small town dealers...not being around a big city things maybe different for those dealers.

[Pbutler97]

To take it one step further, I received an email from a sales guy at RV wholesalers in Ohio yesterday offering to knock another $4000.00 off the Travel trailer they sent me a quote on about 3 weeks ago. Seeing I have not had that happen for about 4 years that speaks volumes about sales of big ticket items in general.

[Pbutler97]

Me Again wrote:

Pbutler97 wrote:
More 3/4 tons are sold with gas engines than diesel by a longshot regardless.

Could you show us where you got that statistic? That certainly is not the norm in Western States.

I know that statistic from dealing with sales managers over the last 20 years or so when it comes to fleet/commercial sales. Where did you get your statistic that it's not the norm in Western states? Visual observation on the highway?

[Grit_dog]

Me Again wrote:

Pbutler97 wrote:
More 3/4 tons are sold with gas engines than diesel by a longshot regardless.

Could you show us where you got that statistic? That certainly is not the norm in Western States.

It’s a back east thing. Waaay more HD gassers.
Low altitude, very few mountains, and the biggest reason in the northern states, a diesel doesn’t hold the same value when it’s in the rust belt and is a pile of corrosion with a ‘spensive motor before the engine is worn out.

[Me_Again]

Pbutler97 wrote:
More 3/4 tons are sold with gas engines than diesel by a longshot regardless.

Could you show us where you got that statistic? That certainly is not the norm in Western States.