DirtyOil
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Re: So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?
ShinerBock wrote: Well I guess the US Energy Information Administration just doesn't know what they are talking about. "Refiners revamped (retrofitted) existing refinery units to produce ULSD, representing two-thirds of highway diesel production, and thatthe remaining refineries built new units. The capital cost of revamping is assumed to be 50 percent of the cost of adding a new unit. The amount of ULSD downgraded to a lower value product because of sulfur contamination in the distribution system is assumed to be 7.8 percent at the start of the program, declining to 2.2 percent at full implementation. The decline reflects the expectation that the distribution system will become more efficient at handling ULSD with experience. A revenue loss is assumed to occur when a portion of ULSD that is put into the distribution system is contaminated and must be sold as a lower-value product. The amount of the revenue loss is estimated offline based on earlier NEMS results and is included in the AEO2012 ULSD price projections as a distribution cost. The revenue loss associated with the 7.8 percent downgrade assumption for 2009 is 0.7 cents per gallon. The revenue loss estimate declines to 0.2 cents per gallon after 2010 to reflect the assumed decline to 2.2 percent. The capital and operating costs associated with ULSD distribution are based on assumptions used by the EPA in the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) of the rule 9. Capital costs of 0.7 cent per gallon are assumed for additional storage tanks needed to handle ULSD during the transition period. These capital expenditures have been fully amortized by 2011. Additional operating costs for distribution of highway diesel of 0.2 cent per gallon are assumed over the entire projection period. Another 0.2-cent cost per gallon is assumed for lubricity additives. Lubricity additives are needed to compensate for the reduction of aromatics and high-molecular-weight hydrocarbons stripped away by the severe hydrotreating used in the desulphurization process." US EIA Petroleum Market Module From articles I have read, it cost over $8 billion to revamp the refineries to make ULSD. looks like more of a distribution issue then a refining issue along with poor execution of the process.461Views0likes0CommentsRe: So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?
Being in the petroleum business for 38 years, I've learned a few things. Hydrodesulfurization has been used since the fifties, to remove sulphur, not a new process. Invented in late 1800s, it has been redeveloped/redesigned/upgraded since, to improve octane ratings in naphtha (gasoline), by removing/reducing sulphur in the feed stock. The price per gallon, liter, bbl or m3 has more to do with supply and demand, less to do with the production/processing.460Views0likes0CommentsRe: So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?
ShinerBock wrote: As I stated before, the current low sulfur fuel used in local US and EU waters, or Emission Control Area's(ECA) as they are called, effects a much smaller amount of marine fuel demand than the new 2020 regulation will. IMO 2020: What’s next? Shell wrote: The transition to 0.5%S will cause more changes to global marine industry than the switch to the 0.1%S fuel in the ECAs. The impact of this transition represents approximately 75% of global marine fuel demand when compared to the demand of ECA. This article from BP has a better map of current ECA's. MARPOL 2020 and beyond And as I stated... Canada and the US are years ahead of the so called "Global limits" our ECA has had limits set at 1000ppm, for several years now! No reason why we can't have ULSD across the board, for both on/off road, rail/marine and globally... process is there. Processors just need a kick in the rear and get their heads out of the sand.460Views0likes0CommentsRe: So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?
Grit dog wrote: Lotsa wrong info in this thread. Most of the worlds transoceanic diesels still run off bunker fuel which actually is .5% sulfur/5000ppm. Only around the US is it limited to 1000ppm. And bunker fuel is still like $1 a gallon but prices are rising with oil prices. It sure ain't sweet crude though. and more misinformation.... There is category 2 and 3 "marine" fuels, 15ppm (ULSD) became the limit for locomotive and marine use in June 2012. Category 3 marine fuel went to 1000ppm in 2015, from 10,000ppm in 2010. Canada and the US applied a limit of 1000ppm along their shorelines, that's means any shipping from Canada and/or the US, along with any international marine use fuel a limit of 1000ppm, for category 3 marine fuel. all arguments aside... we are regardless heading in the right direction in reducing sulphur and sulphur dioxide (acid rain) which is a WIN WIN!370Views0likes0CommentsRe: So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?
FishOnOne wrote: DirtyOil wrote: ShinerBock wrote: For those that do not know, a few years ago the International Maritime Organization made a significant regulation that will have a big impact on everyone's wallet, especially diesel vehicles owners. They set a new standard for sulfur content in ship diesel fuel that they allow at their ports to .5%S by January 1, 2020.They set a new standard for sulfur content in ship diesel fuel that they allow at their ports to .5%S by January 1, 2020. That is a significant drop from the current limit. While this will have an impact on everyone's wallet because this new fuel will be more costlier than current fuel used(which will increase prices on everyday goods), it may end up hurting or helping diesel owners according to some analyst. Many here may remember when the EPA set the ULSD standard and how it effected diesel prices due to the extra refining and purification needed, and causing "sweet" crude prices to increase even more. For years, on land diesel owners alone had to pay the added cost for all of the added refining equipment and processes since the low sulfur fuel was only for them. Diesel fuel refiners also switched to using more "sweet" crude (that was only previously used to make gasoline) due to its lower sulfur content versus less expensive "sour" crude it used before causing the demand(and price) for "sweet" crude to increase. There are people on both sides of this argument. Some are saying it will cause both diesel and gas prices to skyrocket because it would cause the demand for "sweet" crude to increase even higher. Others are saying that it will cause on road diesel prices to go down because now shipping will also be paying for the added refining processes spreading out the cost for the added piping and other equipment needing to purify "sour" crude. What is your take on it? You know 0.5% is 5000ppm.... that's a lot of sulphur!! In Canada we have been producing and selling ULSD since 2010 which has a sulphur content of equal or less then 15ppm or 0.0015% except for rail and marine. But since most of our refineries are producing ULSD even the rail and marine fuels are already ULSD. Any rail or marine diesel that is not ULSD has a sulphur content of less then 500ppm or 0.05% Dirty Oil, I suppose the Canadian oil sands production is still stagnant? Hiya Fish! Fort McMurray STRONG! We are still producing (where I work currently) approx 690,000 bbl/day. Some smaller projects are on hold until we get that pipeline twined to Tide Water. There are many other producers still producing and expanding in the area.370Views0likes0CommentsRe: So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?
ShinerBock wrote: For those that do not know, a few years ago the International Maritime Organization made a significant regulation that will have a big impact on everyone's wallet, especially diesel vehicles owners. They set a new standard for sulfur content in ship diesel fuel that they allow at their ports to .5%S by January 1, 2020.They set a new standard for sulfur content in ship diesel fuel that they allow at their ports to .5%S by January 1, 2020. That is a significant drop from the current limit. While this will have an impact on everyone's wallet because this new fuel will be more costlier than current fuel used(which will increase prices on everyday goods), it may end up hurting or helping diesel owners according to some analyst. Many here may remember when the EPA set the ULSD standard and how it effected diesel prices due to the extra refining and purification needed, and causing "sweet" crude prices to increase even more. For years, on land diesel owners alone had to pay the added cost for all of the added refining equipment and processes since the low sulfur fuel was only for them. Diesel fuel refiners also switched to using more "sweet" crude (that was only previously used to make gasoline) due to its lower sulfur content versus less expensive "sour" crude it used before causing the demand(and price) for "sweet" crude to increase. There are people on both sides of this argument. Some are saying it will cause both diesel and gas prices to skyrocket because it would cause the demand for "sweet" crude to increase even higher. Others are saying that it will cause on road diesel prices to go down because now shipping will also be paying for the added refining processes spreading out the cost for the added piping and other equipment needing to purify "sour" crude. What is your take on it? You know 0.5% is 5000ppm.... that's a lot of sulphur!! In Canada we have been producing and selling ULSD since 2010 which has a sulphur content of equal or less then 15ppm or 0.0015% except for rail and marine. But since most of our refineries are producing ULSD even the rail and marine fuels are already ULSD. Any rail or marine diesel that is not ULSD has a sulphur content of less then 500ppm or 0.05%370Views0likes0CommentsRe: So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?
ShinerBock wrote: Some of the articles I have read have stated that it won't just be a price increase, but a temporary diesel fuel shortage similar to the fuel crisis in the 70's if refineries do not have the capacity to refine enough low sulfur diesel. If this is to be the case then you'll see a shortage in gasoline, all coming from the same barrel of oil. Articles like those just add to the excuses for driving the price up... news headline: "CEO of Dead Matter Energy Corp... stubs toe while chasing secretary, oil jumps to $200/bbl, on news toe will take 6 weeks to heal".218Views0likes0CommentsRe: So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?
Unless producers of heavy/sour oil receive a higher price for their product (currently heavy/sour oil is sold per bbl cheaper(much cheaper almost 1/2 price) then WTI, hence why some refineries use the cheaper oil to offset costs of refining) Most refineries are set up to process WTI and/or heavy/sour crude... so world crude oil markets will determine the price, not the cost of processing.136Views0likes0CommentsRe: Anderson
billy1davis wrote: Yes I have lubricated the entire landing gear as I just replaced most of it. Yes I use blocks for raising the 5vr on the front. The motor is quite a bit larger than most wiper motors I have seen but still undersized. It does take more than a few seconds to go the extra 4". And yes it is for sure my belief that even the quality rv's like mind..AF.. use the cheapest materials and equipment especially when it will not be noticed at point of sale. I have had Lance, Artic Fox, Komfort, Serengeti and many others and they all wear out sooner than they should and mostly due to under sized and cheap parts. It is frustrating to say the least. So yes the motor is undersized and works too hard to do a simple job that would be made much easier if it was properly sized for the task. but having just put in all new landing gear except the follower leg I am not about buying the better stuff now. I think that answers most of the issues. Would like more comments on the Anderson Hitch versus the normal kind. When I was hauling RVs for a living I used the "normal" hitch, hated it!! Noisy, rattled, clanked and banged. A pain in the rear at times to release the jaws. Been using the Anderson for 5 years now, can hook up the 5'er at any angle, it's quiet stable and easy to use, remove and store (hangs on the wall in da garage like a painting of Mona Lisa). Still waiting for the day it bends/collapses and for it to cause "deflection" in the bed. I not use it for camping trips, but also use it as a mobile camp/office when in the field.324Views0likes0Comments
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