Pemex is near bankrupt. It is intentional. To clear billion dollar a year dead wood from the skyscraper bureaucracy and do de-fang the utterly corrupt worker's union.
So all those big newspaper promises about desulfuring in Queretaro and Premium production in Salina Cruz turned out to be fantasmas. Ghosts.
Having eyes on the ground in the form of a pair of engineers who talk to cohorts revealed the truth of the matter since 2015.
A great majority of fuel is now imported and distributed by tankers and pipelines. The pitiful production at Reynosa for example can easily be offset by pipeline imports from Texas. It means using the pipeline a few extra hours each day.
So, a shortage will only effect for a day or two. Until a pig is run through a pipeline and product flows.
Mexico has sold a vast majority of asphaltic based pitch for far below market value on the world market. All to gain pennies on the dollar. This is why domestic asphalt pitch is so expensive and there are tens of millions of potholes on the roads.
It is so sad.
Refinery production at the moment is concentrating on number six fuel oil for CFE production and Diesel Marina.
Heavy ends refinery production reduces process burden by >80%. Running refineries at idle speed greatly reduces the chances of a unit upset. CFE does not have a requirement for fuel sulfur content and Diesel Marina is exempt from restraint.
With the avalanche of super light fracked product saturating the world market, the government seems to have written-off Pemex entirely. In short, the country is nearly out of crude oil and new production has been written off.
A fly-in-the-ointment is AMLO, the leading presidential (PRD) candidate. He could initiate reforms, but to upgrade the refineries is a tens of billions of dollars campaign. It would be cheaper to start from scratch and abandon existing process units.
The great "Gasolinaza" price increase and public furor that took place the first of the year was a money grab to fund vastly increased finished fuel imports. If I had to guess, at the moment Pemex is importing >65% of its comistibles. Probably closer to 80%. My eyesight is not good enough to see ships at anchor but I would bet a month's pension 90% of them have foreign produced product to be pumped ashore.