You ALL forget the days of Super Mexolina, Gasolmex, and Pemex Cien. Followed by the days of Nova (No Va! Won't Go). Then Magna and Nova. Diluting of higher cost fuel with cheaper got so bad, Petroleos Mexicanos had to add green dye to the new grade Magna Sin, to lessen the chances of dilution.
There is NO SURPLUS of 15 ppm diesel in the USA.
Mexico has to purchase UBA diesel from Japan as well as the US when stocks get low. The sole terminal it arrives at is Rosarito, where it is distributed uniquely to the state of Baja California. NOT Baja California Sur.
Mexican refineries are feeble. Equipment is so many years overtaxed that explosions are common. A recent estimate from a friend has all six refinaciones operating at 45% capacity with frequent unit upsets. Light, sweet Mexican crude is a myth. Heavy stock is a real ------- to process. Cat crackers, alkylation units, sulfur extraction, delayed cokers, all of these things are so far into dreamland it brings tears.
Japan cannot hope to meet the demands for country-wise UBA production, and the USA is chock full of ride-your-bycicle-on-vacation and to-work-everyday types fighting refinery expansion. Ultra Low sulfur diesel is not something middle-east and south American refineries produce.
MEXICO never has been and never will be consumer dreamland where market forces drive down pricetags through stiff competition. Just day before yesterday shopping I noticed in this economically depressed area price were up considerably in pesos for fully made in Mexico staples. Remember the golden rule "When Business Is Down Raise Prices".
Gasolinera owners form informal sindicados. If a new station should open it's door and decide to dispense gasoline and diesel through accurate pumps, more pressure is brought to bear on the gasolinera than you can ever think was possible. Stricter and more frequent government inspections. PROFECO? Ever see a PROFECO team move in and close a station for the better part of a day? It could be done in two hours, but a wad of 500 peso notes makes the "lider" ask for confirmation after confirmation of dispenser qualifications. Profeco is honest "Liders" can be bought.
Unless it is heavily dyed like Magna was dyed green, UBA diesel in the interior, will be ultra-vulnerable to dilution with 500 ppm diesel. Pipas Pemex? Surely you jest. Tank trucks, barges, and ships are all contractors. They have the Pemex emblem, but the service is a contractor. Read the door of the trucks, the tankers. 101% of the fuel for Baja California Sur, comes from the tank farm in Topolobampo, Sinaloa. Premium fuel, every drop of which is refined in the USA, travels from the Rosarito B.C. offshore terminal via pipeline from Mexicali (where the UBA and refined in USA Magna enters Baja as well), it is pumped to the tank farm in El Sauzal, then to the ship offshore to be taken south to Salina Cruz, then dispensed, northbound, even to Topolobampo where barges ply cross the gulf to Pichilingie BCS.
The tanker FROM Salina Cruz refinacion brings diesel MARINA to Rosarito/El Sauzal, and Magna to several ports along the Pacific including Topolobampo. Diesel MARINA is 1,200 PPM diesel straight out of the eighties. Control of sales is tight and is available to ships only. The ferries from Sta Rosalia and Pichilingue all use diesel MARINA.
Pemex agreed to "open" the market only after staring Armageddon in the face. There is about as much chance of a bunch of Mexican refineries flooding Mexico with UBA as there is of you digging under your rig and finding The Treasure of The Revolution.
The dilution of Pemex Premium gasoline with Magna is an ongoing war. Tankers are routinely sampled. They point fingers at the ships and barge owners. But this is not a big deal because dilution is far more trouble than it's worth. Have you looked at the price DIFFERENTIAL between Magna and Premium? It's a thin spread and it has been done on purpose.
I can only hope UBA is dyed a deep purple to prevent tampering. When some vegetable oils stop being canned or bottled in packaging that looks EXACTLY like olive oil, then I'll start to relax. It costs significantly more to package vegetable oil this way, and when Mexican housewives see it, they snort and chuckle. Pay 25% more for 1-2-3 are you out of your mind?
The people who disbelieve this are invited to stop at a roadside stand, purchase the most convenient jar of green olives then pop one into their mouth. "AGHHHHHHHHH! BITTER!" The vendor replies, "Oh that must have been a mistake. Here, try this one!" Salt is expensive ya know...