Found a nice hidden CG available site on facebook!

Florida is 500 miles long - so where exactly are these arctic events happening ?

Originally being from Iowa, I pretty much find it ludicrous to use the word 'arctic' and 'Florida' in the same sentence. I don't know about anyone else, but when I think of arctic conditions, I think of blizzards and well below zero temps for days on end.

I know things can get a little ugly some winters in the panhandle along I-10, but even then, I don't think anyone would call it arctic. In the 15 years I lived in the Orlando area, I can truthfully state that I could wear shorts every day if I wanted to. And you ain't gonna have any of that winter nonsense down around Ft Myers. They have palm trees down there that can't even take the winter temps that occur in the Orlando area.

One of the Florida Keys claims to fame is that it has never EVER got down to 32 degrees. My kind of place.

...there have been appx ~49 severe prolonged cold events in Florida from 1765 till 2016. There were 21 prolonged arctic events in Florida during the 20th Century (1900 to 2000); frequency: every ~4.7 years. And, during the 21st Century, there have been 10 prolonged arctic events over the 16 years; frequency: every ~1.6 years :E So, that leaves 18 severe cold events in Florida from 1765 to 1899; frequency: every ~7.4 years. So, it appears very evidently that exceptional cold spells in Florida are becoming very more frequent!

1765 to 1899: frequency every ~7.4 years
1900 to 2000: frequency every ~4.7 years
2001 to 2016: frequency every ~1.6 years (but extrapolating till 2050, ~3.0)

2017 to 2030: little ice age ? :p

Whenever Florida experiences "arctic cold fronts" that last for weeks (and sometimes more than a month), believe me, the entire central and eastern USA are experiencing much worse cold, too; but Alaska and the far north are very markedly warmer than average. We're going to snowbird in Alaska LOL! :B

It's much simpler than that. You go outside and see how cold it is and if its snowing!

AND....every ten years like clockwork you will have one helluva nasty winter.

It was the last ten year big one that got me into the RV heading south and outta the Midwest for winters. :C

And, according to the Farmers Almanac, snow showers the first week of November. And, as usual, below normal temps this winter...

It would be interesting to compare the Almanac long-term forecast to the CPC NCEP long-range 2 class 3 month/6 month outlook :B

NCEP reports for the Oct, Nov, Dec time block 55/45 for warmer than average temps for all the states from Pennsylvania down to Florida. And, for the Northeast, a 70/30 for warmer than average temps for the same period.

For the Nov, Dec, Jan time block, they calculate an equal chance 50/50 for above or below normal temps. However, for the Northeast, it is 55/45 for New Hampshire, Vermont and Mass., and 60/40 for the southern half of Maine above average temps.

Precip for Mid Atlantic to Maine is equal chance above or below normal for Oct, Nov, Dec. And, from South Carolina down to northern Florida, 60~70/40~30 for below normal precip for Oct, Nov, Dec (very dry). This will be the same or drier for the same region over the entire 2017 winter (with Florida locked in perhaps a very dry/winter drought).

On edit: the 2015/2016 winter was the warmest winter on record over the entire US going back an astounding 121 years (and most of Canada; especially from Manitoba to Ontario to Quebec); including if you live from Pennsylvania to Maine, and South/North Dakota and Minnesota to Montana. Even Anchorage had no snow on the ground for the first time (February!) on record: Washington Post article-->

I wish I could jump on it.......... But, I'll be spending another Pennsylvania winter at home. :(

And, according to the Farmers Almanac, snow showers the first week of November. And, as usual, below normal temps this winter...