Forum Discussion
- Could be the lousy product they make.
SidecarFlip wrote:
All industries are cyclical. Maybe the saturation point has been reached.
Agreed.
There was a lot of pent up money waiting to be spent, which happened starting Jan 2017. Every industry I work with had trouble keeping up with demand last year.
The foolish ones thought it would last forever, they expanded and spent accordingly.
The smarter ones saw it for what it was, a quick release of a bunch of money, and they planned accordingly.
My real job is industrial sales. In 2017 my sales were up almost 30% over 2016. Thankfully I work for a GREAT company who asks us for realistic numbers, not an unrealistic sunshine and roses report. When I did my 2018 sales projections I said I'd be down 20% vs 2017. YTD I'm down 17%.
While things today are certainly better than they were, 2017 was an unusual spending event that was 8 years in the making.- Everytime I drive by an auto/truck or RV dealership I wonder who is going to buy the inventory I see sitting!
Go by any private auto repair shop and there are so many vehicles there that don't seem to be there for repair with many for sale. There is so much used vehicle inventory.
I watch boat ads on craigslist and the prices exceed common sense. A new $10 K boat 10 years ago is selling for $40-50 K now. A friend bought 2 new 300 hp outboard engines, list price was $40,000. - Many Millennials have the attitude that life owes them something. They go to school on their parents money and student loans, don't work during college and get a degree in a field that leaves them unemployable because it's an easy A and leaves them plenty of time to party. After graduation, they realize their degree is worthless and demand $15 and hour to flip hamburgers. Me! Me! Me! I'm tired of hearing the whining! I'll take my medication now.
rgatijnet1 wrote:
One thing to consider is that the demographics of RVing is changing. The current generation of Millennials just do not have the same interest in RV's as we do. They also do not have the same interest in home ownership, and many other things that identify with our generation. The sales of quite a few items are in a decline for the simple reason that the newer generations of buyers have other interests. Times are changing and unfortunately MANY things are being left behind.
I think that millennials have the interest, they just don't have the money. Thirty percent of them report that they would like to buy a home, but can't due to student loan debt, the average payment of which is $400 per month. The average student loan balance is $37,000. Many have much more debt, and many are not working in a field of their major, and have to take low wage jobs. They can't afford to have babies either. The birth rate is the lowest in US history. I read an article yesterday that said a major indicator of recession is now present, which has preceded every single recession since the 1930's. Paul Volcker say he "see's a hell of a mess in every direction". It's going to be a rocky road a head.midnightsadie wrote:
maybe there poor quality is catching up.
Their - and doubtful. Thor has the largest market share and diversification of any manufacturer. As such a great litmus and pulse on the RV market. As noted in the article, much of the impact was due to acquisitions and manufacturing costs as well as slowed customer demand. I think we'll see all the other brands reflect losses as well however not as dramatic as Thor as most others didn't have the acquisition expense. But I think this is another indicator that we may be in for a rough ride - pardon the pun.- maybe there poor quality is catching up.
- One thing to consider is that the demographics of RVing is changing. The current generation of Millennials just do not have the same interest in RV's as we do. They also do not have the same interest in home ownership, and many other things that identify with our generation. The sales of quite a few items are in a decline for the simple reason that the newer generations of buyers have other interests. Times are changing and unfortunately MANY things are being left behind.
- Bond Yield curves are in inversion, large auto makers are laying off - heck lots of companies laying off, interest rates are climbing, tariffs are hurting production costs - not just at the element level but trickle down, markets are in decline, new and existing housing sales are in decline, job growth is stunted..these and many other factors are pretty glaring signs that we are headed for another recession. Not surprising the first things to slow down are autos and luxury items. Both of these are attributes of RV's. Thor will survive. Their market share and reserves make them stable enough to winter another recession, and likely in a position to gobble up more competition. But I think this is just the beginning.
- The numbers are still way above the peak numbers before the 2008 market crash and as mentioned by others there will be a down year here and there during the general upward trend.
