Yes, water intrusion. The Vinyl shows the outward damage. If you gently pulled the vinyl from the center strip you would see rotted wood decking the vinyl glues to. The vinyl will NOT be able to be reglued to the wood. The wood ceiling panel and other damaged ceiling wood decking will need replaced and new vinyl glued to the new decking. Per panel(4 foot by 8 foot) cost at $150 labor rate would be about 4 hours plus materials (about $150 per panel for a total of about $800 per 4 by 8 foot. That is standard warranty time, and not actual Customer pay labor which may increase the hours to 5 instead of 4. AND, you would need to verify the CAUSE has been fixed. Nothing worse than fixing a ceiling problem and the cause has not been stopped. Doug