I think you are spot on with that. 1/3 of what the TIVO offers is about right. Also, with the Tablo you have to buy an external compatable hard drive, a media streamer, hope the company stays in business and keeps putting out bug fixes, which many similar companies have not been able to do. Tablo is a young company with some hard drive compatibility complaints, and set up issues. TIVO went through similar problems when starting up.
The Tablo 2 is $200, plus around $100 for a hard drive, $50 to a $100 for a streaming device, not to mention taking a risk on a young company.
TIVO is a company that has been, and will continue to be around for a long time, because someone will always buy them. A TIVO OTA can be had for $49, and I have seen life time memberships go for as low as $250.
I recommended the TIVO because I went through a similar situation as the OP, and from my research felt it was the best bargain.
az99, out of curiosity what would you recommend, and why?