And Texas Caves In

tommyznr wrote:

pianotuna wrote:
Hi,

I'm all for 100% testing. So far, less than 1/2 of one percent have been tested. It appears the virus may be more contagious before symptoms appear than after.

I'd love to self test with a sputum at home. I'd love to be one of the folks who had covid 19 with a weak response.

The Province of Saskatchewan has just 95 active cases and no one in intensive care--but the Premier has just extended the state of emergency by two weeks. I am happy he did so.

Can you provide some context here?

Does state of emergency include stay at home orders etc?

Does extending by two weeks mean two weeks from now or two weeks from some magical date in the near future?

The reason I ask is that the state of emergency in the US does not include stay at home orders. I suspect the state of emergency will go on far longer than the stay at home orders. Meaning, we will start having things open up and we will be allowed to go out but we will still be under a state of emergency.

As far a 100% testing goes, someone in this thread or another went over the logistics of that, back of a napkin type calculations. It is just not feasible with the current technology.

two weeks from April 15, 2020.

It is a Provincial Order (i.e. a State), not Federal.

It allows the discretion to go out for essential items but encourages folks to shelter in place. Unnecessary travel is to be avoided.

As far as testing, more is better. Saskatchewan has done 20k tests on a population of 1 million. Far too low in my opinion. DNA tests can be done locally now and take 1 hour. But what I truly want is a way to test myself.

I hope I answered your question of context adequately.

our old son had the flu. Wal mart fired him for missing work.

chevman

westernrvparkowner wrote:
A common theme is we need more and more and more testing. Could someone please explain exactly what that will accomplish? A test doesn't cure anyone...

You make some very good points. There is also another major issue with testing. No one knows how reliable these tests are. A bunch of them were dumped on the market without the usual validation. That would have taken months or even years. There are very likely to be large numbers of false positive and false negative test results. Even similar tests that have undergone extensive development and validation are often not very reliable.

There was a recent news item about poor reliability of Chinese test kits that had been sold to England. The tests were showing about a 1/3 false negatives for patients with severe Covid symptoms. The tests we have in the US may not be any better. No one knows. Physicians are treating patients based on symptoms, not test results.

There has also been a lot of talk about antibody testing. Who knows if those tests will be any more reliable. Patients with positive antibody tests may not be immune. It took decades to develop tests that are mostly reliable for Lyme Disease and even then the primary test requires confirmation by an expensive and cumbersome reference test.

westernrvparkowner wrote:
Testing as a way to actually control the spread is a false promise.

Testing and contact tracing did work for Mers, SARS, and other infectious diseases. It may not for Covid-19 because of the higher R0 and the 1-2days of infectiousness prior to the onset of symptoms. It may still be the most humane way to open the economy.

What is your suggestion, open the economy and let “survival of the fittest (wealthiest)” control the outcome?

"Does state of emergency include stay at home orders etc?"

Ask your state and your county! Why ask on a nationwide RV forum?

"Does extending by two weeks mean two weeks from now or two weeks from some magical date in the near future?"

The use of the word "magical" is inappropriate. None of our health care professionals understand this virus but they are trying. The situation is fluid and IMO will remain so. You are asking for an answer no one has...worldwide. Putting off the fun of camping won't kill anyone.

pianotuna wrote:
Hi,

I'm all for 100% testing. So far, less than 1/2 of one percent have been tested. It appears the virus may be more contagious before symptoms appear than after.

I'd love to self test with a sputum at home. I'd love to be one of the folks who had covid 19 with a weak response.

The Province of Saskatchewan has just 95 active cases and no one in intensive care--but the Premier has just extended the state of emergency by two weeks. I am happy he did so.

Can you provide some context here?

Does state of emergency include stay at home orders etc?

Does extending by two weeks mean two weeks from now or two weeks from some magical date in the near future?

The reason I ask is that the state of emergency in the US does not include stay at home orders. I suspect the state of emergency will go on far longer than the stay at home orders. Meaning, we will start having things open up and we will be allowed to go out but we will still be under a state of emergency.

As far a 100% testing goes, someone in this thread or another went over the logistics of that, back of a napkin type calculations. It is just not feasible with the current technology.

"Now, in New York City, the number is closer to 130 per 10,000 people.
Now, if we all keep to the stay-at-home routine, the virus isn't going away." The numbers back East are terrible.

We buy time by staying at home. We limit hospitalizations to a manageable number - a longer term. And hopefully someone finds a vaccine.

If you want to all stand up, rush that hill and get a bunch of Americans killed, I suppose you can do that. I'd rather not.

Of course you would have to put off the fun of camping for a while. Not too big a sacrifice IMO.

JRscooby wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:


"The only time I see an advantage, other than to the statisticians, is if you test positive for the active virus and you have no other symptoms. Then you could quarantine yourself until you are no longer a silent carrier. But what are the odds of identifying that silent carrier?"

I can't tell what the odds would be to find that carrier with testing. But without testing, the odds of finding him are zero.
And without the testing, how can anybody know the risk? You test only the sickest at hospital, a high percentage of positives doesn't tell much. Testing the general population? You get useful info.
I think health care workers should be sampled every shift. Because of working with sick they have high probability of exposure. And if they have/not sick/will spread.
The store workers, and others should be tested every few days. If positive, stay home, with pay, until clear.
The US has a problem most of the world does not have when it comes to controlling this; Example, Mar 10, working as election judge. I packed alcohol and paper towels in lunch bag with plans to wipe pens and tables occasionally thru the day. Knew it would not be 100%, but thought might kill some, maybe just cold/flu. I was told by judges of the other party I could not do when any voters could see, because might influence the vote. Did any virus spread because I didn't wipe? Don't know, no testing.

The fastest test today takes about 15 minutes. At any given time the average Walmart has about 100 people working. It would take more than a day to process an 8 hour shift. And even if you tested every employee, what about the customers? They are just as likely to infect others (including those employees who just tested clean) and there is no way to test them before they enter. Testing as a way to actually control the spread is a false promise. Covid19 is something we will just have to adapt to having as a threat, just like many other diseases. The best hope short term is that some of the treatments currently in use prove to be beneficial. Mid term, hopefully those treatments will be refined, augmented and improved. Long term it is hoped that an effective vaccine can be developed. Making it just go away by segregating the population by some kind of testing is not feasible.

Hi,

I'm all for 100% testing. So far, less than 1/2 of one percent have been tested. It appears the virus may be more contagious before symptoms appear than after.

I'd love to self test with a sputum at home. I'd love to be one of the folks who had covid 19 with a weak response.

The Province of Saskatchewan has just 95 active cases and no one in intensive care--but the Premier has just extended the state of emergency by two weeks. I am happy he did so.