Went out to the dealer this morning and wasn't able to strike a deal. :(
The largest difference was in my misunderstanding of their "sales" prices. They had an internet price of $34,xxx on this truck. I thought the rebate totals came off of that...they do not, they are included already. That put us about $7.5k off. They should make that more clear.
They also gave only $5.5k on my trade...average trade value is about $7,400. They kept saying that the $1750 trade allowance from Ford makes it a more reasonable offer. I don't buy that. The rebate from Ford has no value at all if they are just lowering their offer on the trade!
So be it. I'm disappointed, but I'll just keep working the problem until the right solution for us comes up.