Battery costs will be below 100 per KWh by 2020. Electric vehicles in general are way beyond proof of concept. Every manufacturer is planning on switching to Full BEV platforms by 2030 with some achieving that goal much sooner. There is already good demand for EV’s already and for the most part it is lack of supply holding things back. I believe Nissan already has north of 50,000 orders for the 2018 leaf. Tesla has over 400,000 reservations for their model 3 and their high end S and X lineup are always close to being sold out to Max capacity. The technology will work its way to the commercial side like it has with busses. It will come down to economics. Tonight’s unveiling of the Tesla semi should give a glimpse of what will be available to the short and medium hall trucking industry within a couple years. I suspect a motorhome integrator will take a stab at something within a few years as well. Charging infrastructure is growing rapidly and more stand alone solar or solar assisted sites are showing up. Wether the west can keep up to China for research and development remains to be seen but I wouldn’t want to be a major supplier to China of vehicles right now without having a serious EV program. I doubt you will see the sale of many non electric vehicles to China within a decade.
