ppine wrote:
Good video that is thought provoking.
There is no doubt that there will be some changes by 2030.
Americans love their cars. In rural areas, there is no public transportation and never will be. People like to bring their camping equipment with them as well as RVs. Not everyone wants a tiny electric car.
I worked on an environmental impact statement for the proposed tram system in Yosemite National Park in 1974. It never got built because people want to bring their RVs and camping equipment instead of take a bus into the Valley.
There will be a demand for internal combustion vehicles, especially diesels well past 2030. EVs are part of the answer but not the only answer.
I agree. But re the size of Electric vehicles, you might be under the wrong impression. MOst are compacts (not sub compacts) or mid size sedans or SUV/crossovers.
The Tesla S is a BIG car. % passenger, 5000 pound towing capacity and a brute as far as towing. Zero to 60 at under 8 seconds pulling rated load trailer.
The Tesla X is a full sized SUV
The Tesla 3 will probably classed as a Compact but its bigger than our leaf.
Our Nissan leaf is also 5 passenger but us considered a compact. Nice and spacious, 5 people and 4 suitcases.
Chevy Bolt, also a compact.
Kia Soul is a crossover.
The rest are not available in the US but most are compacts.
Probably the only tiny electric car would be our 2 seater smart ED. It is tiny but has a niche market. Fun to drive, fast, agile, convertible (ours anyway). Great for running around town and even short intercity hopping. It has a more limited range (120-140 KM) but does everything we need it to do.
If you have the opportunity go for a Tesla test drive DO IT. Don't worry, they are very open to test drives. They won't try and sell you a car, they can't, there are no salesman and there are no dealerships. They are only there to give provide test drives. The car sells itself....at the rate of 6500 per week at an average of 85000 per copy. The cool thing, these cars never cut into the current US auto manufacturer market. The vast majority of their sales are to former BMW and Mercedes buyers. They are actually cheaper and the maintenance bills are considerably less. And then of course the "fuel" is a lot less.
So 2018 the model 3 hits the streets. We'll see if the big three are ready. Remember, at this point, GM is only planning on building 30,000 bolts a year. I talked to a GM salesman in the Palm Springs area recently. I was hoping to get see a Bolt again and get some pictures. He says the few bolts they get are gone within hours...not days. If they had 3 times the amount coming in they still wouldn't be able to keep them in stock. I asked why they don't ramp up production sooner. According to him the dealerships are terrified of these things because their maintenance departments will have nothing to do. Apparently a significant portion of the dealer income is the maintenance department. With an electric? well, not much to do on an electric. There are more than 2000 moving parts on an ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle. there are 18 on a Tesla. Some manufacturers (mercedes) have tried things like changing the brake fluid change interval to one year just to get people in but most people are smarter than that. Mercedes service visits are expensive for ICE vehicles.
Bolts are still a bit expensive. 37000 base model not including fast charge. If you only need a couple hundred kilometers range consider the current leaf. They are coming out with a new model in 2018 to compete with the Tesla model 3. In the meantime the present ones are pretty cheap. Mid to high 20's
Its going to be an interesting decade.