My prediction for the future..

One place up North of Richmond, VA RVs were stacked deep on both sides of I-95 for a mile or more. Never saw any shrinkage. Between here and Raleigh, NC (50 Mi maybe) 2 dealers lots were and still are overflowing. How would you like to be stuck with a $1500+ payment for 20 years on an RV? Banks will take a hit on these when they hit the repo sales....count on it.

I am surprised that the new market has bee strong for the 2021 season. Dealers would be getting 2022 model soon !

The fact is, a lot of people could finally afford a used trailer. The stimulus checks for some were in excess of $7,000. They had never seen that kind of cash. My daughter was one of them. They bought a used trailer and traveled for a month straight. A couple of months ago, she bought a family ski boat with the next round of stimulus money. She home-schooled the kids while they vacationed too. Win, win, win for her. Both her and her fiance are raking in the dough, she being laid off and he on medical leave. Tons of travel time they never would have imagined too.

Gdetrailer wrote:
Doubtful..

While you might find a few folks drop out because RV lifestyle they bought into on impulse doesn't fit their lives, in the long run there most likely will be nearly zero effect on how many used units come up for sale or an effect on lowering prices (fire sale) on those units.

I look at it the same way things happened leading up to and after the "Y2K" scare (remember that?). To refresh your memory, everything computerized was supposed to quit during the transition from Dec 31, 1999 to Jan 1, 2000 due to programmers not thinking ahead and using 4 digit yrs in the date codes.. Everyone was panic scared into buying massive quantities of MREs, water and generators to the point of zero gens to be found in stock anywhere.

Jan 1, 2000 came and went with not even one little blip in power..

I figured there would be massive amount of unused gens flooding the secondary market.. Nothing, no massive sell off of gens after Y2K.. Bet there are still millions of unused gens sitting in boxes in peoples garages that have never seen the light of day since they were built in 1999 or before..

If you think your gonna find a after Covid fire sale bargain, thing again.

If you really want to go camping, buy what you like, pay the price and move on..

The fear of "Missing Out" of a bargain needs to be gotten over.

Generator and Trailers. apples and oranges.

A generator is not a big investment to warranty selling it to get your investment back, an RV is a totally different story.

RV sales have been booming for 10 years. Covid just added some gas to the fire. Even without Covid sales RV sales would be hot.
Besides the added Covid buyers added to the 2020 market, RV manufactures were shutdown for a while as well as the parts issue.
I was at my brands factory last year in Oct and they had a huge amount of TT's/5er's sitting on their lot waiting for AC units. They also cut back on production because they had a huge backlog of undelivered units.

The dealer where I bought my TT in Portland Or still has diddle for inventory. As do most of the dealers in my area.

Things won't change much IMO. MSRP's won't fall but deals will be easier after this year as supplies increase.

CG's will still be full. Or at least the popular ones will. If you aren't proactive you get left behind in reserving spots.

Unless/until a lot of them hit the repossession market, I wonder how low the prices will go. A lot of people are going to be in a position where they can't afford to keep and and can't afford to sell it... Travel trailers financed for 10 years and motor homes financed for 15-20 years, bought at inflated prices mean that, even at current market prices, they will have to bring large sums to the bank to go with what they can sell it for just to pay off the note.

I predict the repo market will get very hot in a couple of years. Not sure if/how many banks do short sales on RVs, but I doubt its an option for most.

What's going to be interesting is when the new market "bubble" bursts. Obviously when new prices fall, used will have to follow unless new construction quality falls. But its hard to imagine new construction quality falling from where its been for the last few years.

Like the housing market, now is the time to sell unless you need to replace. Haven't done much real research because I'm not ready to trade, but my year/model TT is listing on RV Trader for more than I paid for it 3 1/2 years ago. In a few years, I'll be ready to go back to a class A, hopefully we'll be able to trade for reasonable values by then. Until then, we'll hold on to our current TT.

Doubtful..

While you might find a few folks drop out because RV lifestyle they bought into on impulse doesn't fit their lives, in the long run there most likely will be nearly zero effect on how many used units come up for sale or an effect on lowering prices (fire sale) on those units.

I look at it the same way things happened leading up to and after the "Y2K" scare (remember that?). To refresh your memory, everything computerized was supposed to quit during the transition from Dec 31, 1999 to Jan 1, 2000 due to programmers not thinking ahead and using 4 digit yrs in the date codes.. Everyone was panic scared into buying massive quantities of MREs, water and generators to the point of zero gens to be found in stock anywhere.

Jan 1, 2000 came and went with not even one little blip in power..

I figured there would be massive amount of unused gens flooding the secondary market.. Nothing, no massive sell off of gens after Y2K.. Bet there are still millions of unused gens sitting in boxes in peoples garages that have never seen the light of day since they were built in 1999 or before..

If you think your gonna find a after Covid fire sale bargain, thing again.

If you really want to go camping, buy what you like, pay the price and move on..

The fear of "Missing Out" of a bargain needs to be gotten over.

I'm already seeing a number of TTs that say "used once" or "fewer than 100 miles" but some of these seem like they're trying to take advantage of the higher prices and flip them.

One ad said the TT only had 30 miles, the distance from the dealer to their home.

Eventually...probably.

Question is how long. I'm betting it's at least a year before it has a big impact. It will take a while before background costs really are felt and then people will be embarrassed to sell at a big loss so quickly.

Falconbrother, agree 100%. I said last year that it would happen at some point. Too many of the new RVers should be staying at Hilton Garden Inns, etc. Fooling with sewer hook-ups, paying storage bills, loading and unloading will eventually take it's toll.