We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.

One point does not make a trend. Have to wait and see

rk911 wrote:to what are you referring?Monthly RV shipments

With the crowding at campgrounds and issues with getting into one why is this a bad thing? I know, its a selfish outlook. I really don't think one tick down is a trend....yet. It will take a lot higher interest rates, just like with mortgages, to affect the industry to the point of disaster. Most people look at if they can make the payment not the long term cost.

Here in Elkhart County, Indiana, the RV Capital of the World, this is hard to believe. Perhaps the shipments are down because they can't get more haulers to take them away. Thousands of RV's are sitting in lots and in every blank space in the area waiting to go out. Been like that all summer. It was like this before the crash in '08. Here in the campground, it seems like a new batch come in for delivery and they are gone the next day. Time will tell, I guess.Dale

The beginning of a trend? Tipping point reached?

Ralph_Cramden
Explorer II
Jan 28, 2019
Ralph Cramden wrote:
We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.
Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?
That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.

DOWN a little over 4% on the year over 2017, The party is over taking into account prior to this time they never went more than 5 years without a downturn. They made it about 8 this go around. History repeats itself. The market can only be flooded with so much garbage.
Big_Katuna
Explorer II
Nov 10, 2018
Depends how you define success. Much of the trillions went right were it was meant to; into the pockets of fat cats and politicians.
westernrvparkow
Explorer
Nov 10, 2018
drsteve wrote:
westernrvparkowner wrote:
doc brown wrote:
Chris Bryant wrote:
We have manufactured a huge bubble, and it's going to burst. Debt levels are skyrocketing in all areas, US, business and personal.
Add that to the effects of climate change witch simply cannot be ignored, as it smacks us in the face with drought and flooding and the picture isn't pretty.

Climate change? Can’t be ignored? Correct until you look at the tremendous controversy among the climatologists. How do you have drought and flooding at the same time. If you are saying drought in one area and flooding in another isn’t that no net gain or loss? Plenty of data against man induced climate change. You just have to find it because the main stream outlets have bought into the hysteria. Sells product.
Isn't nice to know that before man started emitting carbon there were no droughts or floods.

You do know what a strawman is, right?

Thankfully, government has come up with the solution, carbon taxes. Obviously it will work, because when hasn't taxation and putting the government in charge failed to produce the desired results?

Cap and trade got rid of acid rain when Bush I did it

Not sure what this has to do with RV sales, unless the claim is record level RV sales is the environmental tipping point and now the slight down tick from those record levels is the proof we have stepped back from the abyss that is climate change (I guess global warming is so 2005). So maybe all is well in the world, thank you number one environmental condition indicator, year over year RV sales.

It has nothing to do with RV sales, but this is rv.net. Since when does any thread remain on topic?
Droughts and floods weren't my arguments, straw or otherwise, to start with. That was courtesy of Chris Bryant. As for government successes, we have spent somewhere around 22 Trillion on social programs brought about by the "War on Poverty", yet the poverty rate remains nearly constant at the same percentage it was 50 years ago. There still isn't peace in the Middle East despite decades of government action both politically and militarily. The war on terror continues with no end in sight. There is a reason people get very nervous when they hear "we are from the Government, and we are here to help".
Cloud_Dancer
Explorer II
Nov 10, 2018
We were promised many things. Are we there yet? When I drive my motorhome, I promise nothing but driving responsibly. I know how to do that, so that's what I like to teach. How can there possibly be enough good-paying jobs to satisfy everyone? I lived through many times of living the golden years of this and that. How can new generations have the same opinions as I do? The most rewarding job I had was when I was flying and instructing in Lear Jets. I don't know of anyone who wants to do that.
T18skyguy
Explorer
Nov 10, 2018
memtb wrote:
Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs? It seems that the majority of fault finding points at the tariffs. I may be wrong....but I think the tariffs, are ultimately a good thing. They may cause discomfort at first.....but will help long term!

I felt the same way. Give it a chance and see what happens. The idea was suppose to be a way to grow manufacturing here, but that's not whats happening. When China raised the price of aluminum 35%, Alcoa raised their price 35%(where's the patriotism ?). All it does it raise prices for everybody. I just read in motor magazine that all these tariffs on thousands of auto parts are about to happen. This will have to affect RV prices as well. The guy I buy vacuums from just received a letter that prices for all vacuums will go up 35%. There are only two makers of American vacuums left, and one is half foreign owned. Those two will probably hike their prices 35% also. There are no winners in this trade war. The farmers had to be bailed out immediately. I'm not even going to start on the budget deficit which is eventually going to kill us all; that is if you have any net worth.
drsteve
Explorer
Nov 10, 2018
westernrvparkowner wrote:
doc brown wrote:
Chris Bryant wrote:
We have manufactured a huge bubble, and it's going to burst. Debt levels are skyrocketing in all areas, US, business and personal.
Add that to the effects of climate change witch simply cannot be ignored, as it smacks us in the face with drought and flooding and the picture isn't pretty.

Climate change? Can’t be ignored? Correct until you look at the tremendous controversy among the climatologists. How do you have drought and flooding at the same time. If you are saying drought in one area and flooding in another isn’t that no net gain or loss? Plenty of data against man induced climate change. You just have to find it because the main stream outlets have bought into the hysteria. Sells product.
Isn't nice to know that before man started emitting carbon there were no droughts or floods.

You do know what a strawman is, right?

Thankfully, government has come up with the solution, carbon taxes. Obviously it will work, because when hasn't taxation and putting the government in charge failed to produce the desired results?

Cap and trade got rid of acid rain when Bush I did it

Not sure what this has to do with RV sales, unless the claim is record level RV sales is the environmental tipping point and now the slight down tick from those record levels is the proof we have stepped back from the abyss that is climate change (I guess global warming is so 2005). So maybe all is well in the world, thank you number one environmental condition indicator, year over year RV sales.

It has nothing to do with RV sales, but this is rv.net. Since when does any thread remain on topic?
westernrvparkow
Explorer
Nov 10, 2018
doc brown wrote:
Chris Bryant wrote:
We have manufactured a huge bubble, and it's going to burst. Debt levels are skyrocketing in all areas, US, business and personal.
Add that to the effects of climate change witch simply cannot be ignored, as it smacks us in the face with drought and flooding and the picture isn't pretty.

Climate change? Can’t be ignored? Correct until you look at the tremendous controversy among the climatologists. How do you have drought and flooding at the same time. If you are saying drought in one area and flooding in another isn’t that no net gain or loss? Plenty of data against man induced climate change. You just have to find it because the main stream outlets have bought into the hysteria. Sells product.
Isn't nice to know that before man started emitting carbon there were no droughts or floods. Thankfully, government has come up with the solution, carbon taxes. Obviously it will work, because when hasn't taxation and putting the government in charge failed to produce the desired results?
Not sure what this has to do with RV sales, unless the claim is record level RV sales is the environmental tipping point and now the slight down tick from those record levels is the proof we have stepped back from the abyss that is climate change (I guess global warming is so 2005). So maybe all is well in the world, thank you number one environmental condition indicator, year over year RV sales.
drsteve
Explorer
Nov 10, 2018
doc brown wrote:
Chris Bryant wrote:
We have manufactured a huge bubble, and it's going to burst. Debt levels are skyrocketing in all areas, US, business and personal.
Add that to the effects of climate change witch simply cannot be ignored, as it smacks us in the face with drought and flooding and the picture isn't pretty.

Climate change? Can’t be ignored? Correct until you look at the tremendous controversy among the climatologists. How do you have drought and flooding at the same time. If you are saying drought in one area and flooding in another isn’t that no net gain or loss? Plenty of data against man induced climate change. You just have to find it because the main stream outlets have bought into the hysteria. Sells product.

There is no controversy in the scientific community about climate change, or our role in it.
doc_brown
Explorer
Nov 10, 2018
Chris Bryant wrote:
We have manufactured a huge bubble, and it's going to burst. Debt levels are skyrocketing in all areas, US, business and personal.
Add that to the effects of climate change witch simply cannot be ignored, as it smacks us in the face with drought and flooding and the picture isn't pretty.

Climate change? Can’t be ignored? Correct until you look at the tremendous controversy among the climatologists. How do you have drought and flooding at the same time. If you are saying drought in one area and flooding in another isn’t that no net gain or loss? Plenty of data against man induced climate change. You just have to find it because the main stream outlets have bought into the hysteria. Sells product.
CavemanCharlie
Explorer III
Nov 10, 2018
Big Katuna wrote:
Tariffs are helping Brazilian soy farmers, that’s for sure. Meanwhile, were borrowing from the Chinese to pay our soy farmers subsidies.

Not sure how smart it is to alienate trade partners who have other options.

And lets not forget who pays the tariffs; you and I.

Yup