Forum Discussion
- wa8yxmExplorer IIII'm going to stay out of this one.
- goducks10Explorer
Ralph Cramden wrote:
We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.
Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?
That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.
http://www.rvbusiness.com/2018/08/rvia-july-shipments-record-10-9-yoy-growth/ - SidecarFlipExplorer III
Ralph Cramden wrote:
Since 1981 the RV Industry has never went more than 5 years without a downturn. Its been 8 years since the last and not one month since 2010 showed a negative number until May 2018. The July numbers should be out any day. Have they hit the top of the curve? Maybe?
HISTORICAL DATA
Far as I'm concerned that all (builders, dealers and third party sellers of equipment need a good financial spanking to make them realize that turning out **** only impacts their bottom line eventually.
When you can finance a MH for 30 years and in 5 it's junk, makes no sense to me. Not only is it a poor investment it's something (debt) you are shackled with long after the new has worn off, replaced by a probably rotten junker.
Of course in today's climate, not many owners are pro active on even basic maintenance (as evidenced on this forum every day).
I'd say at least half the posted threads on here, if the owners used their noodles for something other than to space their ears apart, the issue could be solved with some common sense.
I'd never finance any RV. I paid cash for my last one and if I buy another, that will be cash as well because financing anything except your real estate is a loosing proposition.
I remember the last big bust when builders were declaring bankruptcy at an alarming clip.
Because the industry is cyclical, I'd say it's coming again and soon.
No problem with me. I may buy a new unit at the height of the bust. Bet I can get a nice unit at a good price with very few defects because the factories will be building quality, not quantity.
Today, it's quantity over quality and it shows in every brand. - Ralph_CramdenExplorer II
rk911 wrote:
to what are you referring?
The proper temperature to bake Quiche Lorraine! - theoldwizard1Explorer IIBubble or at least plateau.
- 2oldmanExplorer II
drsteve wrote:
Yeah, been there. I don't think we need to do a lot of speculation and guessing about it. Ya know what they say about ignoring history...assuming you know history enough to ignore it.
Econ 101 says otherwise, and so does history. Tariffs were one of the triggers for the Great Depression. There are no winners in a trade war. - drsteveExplorer
memtb wrote:
Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs? It seems that the majority of fault finding points at the tariffs. I may be wrong....but I think the tariffs, are ultimately a good thing. They may cause discomfort at first.....but will help long term!
Econ 101 says otherwise, and so does history. Tariffs were one of the triggers for the Great Depression. There are no winners in a trade war. - Grit_dogNavigatorSweet!
I could use a newer camper for cheap and a new truck that isn’t magically $60k!
Only trouble is I’d sure like to cash out our current house but that ain’t gonna happen....sure would be nice though... - Big_KatunaExplorer IIBig adjustment coming.
- Ralph_CramdenExplorer IISince 1981 the RV Industry has never went more than 5 years without a downturn. Its been 8 years since the last and not one month since 2010 showed a negative number until May 2018. The July numbers should be out any day. Have they hit the top of the curve? Maybe?
HISTORICAL DATA
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