The Future of RVing
I am developing an article and podcast segment about the future of RVing/camping. I wanted some of the expert input from the RV.NET audience. What trends do you see developing in the coming years? ...
Forum Discussion
Dutch_12078 wrote:atreis wrote:
Care to place a bet as to whether or not the trend will continue (and they'll be down another .80 next year at this time), or reverse and they'll go back up (not $5, but back into the $3.5-$4 range again)?
Betting on low fuel prices is a nice way to lose a lot of money. Good luck.
There's too many variables to bet on it, but my best guess from the available data is that gas prices will continue to drift lower going into the new year, and then level off as demand catches up with supply and crude prices reach equilibrium with shale oil production costs. As that happens, I expect we'll see some pricing bounce back, but my guess is that gas prices will stay below the $3.00 national average level for at least the next few years as new supplies come on line, not allowing for any unexpected inflationary increases for unrelated issues. A side effect of the gas supply and pricing situation is that propane wholesale prices have also dropped significantly. A few days ago I had 250 gallons of propane delivered to my cottage tank at $1.64/gallon.
For the time being (next 2-3 months) prices could continue to drift downward as drillers continue to bring new supply online at a loss, in anticipation of rising prices and because they've already made the investment. If the prices don't start to rise there will be some consolidation in the domestic oil industry, fewer new sites will be developed, and less profitable sites will be taken offline in order to bring the prices back up into the range of profitability. By spring or early summer, either through increased demand (from China, whose economy is currently slowing), or reduced supply (domestic, or OPEC losing patience and deciding to cut production), the prices will start to rise until it gets back to a minimum of 3.25 or more likely 3.5. I think by this time next year we'll be over $3 again. I could be wrong, but I think what's happening right now is a pleasant but short term event.
It's probably not a bad time to buy Exxon. :)
