There is a nice explanation of AC peak and RMS voltage at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternating_current#Mathematics_of_AC_voltages
The half wave rectified voltage peak is 1.41 times the RMS AC voltage.
Looking at half wave graph it is striking how small a portion of the period has a high enough voltage to light up the LED if you have to keep the peak low enough to avoid killing the LED. I think some serious smoothing with capacitors or chokes would be necessary to avoid noticeable flicker and get the light on over half the time.