"Not really. High current loads do distort the amp-hour capacity, but then there are low-current loads as well, and those distort it in the different direction. And if we are not talking about recharging, i.e. battery losses when juice is going in and out, the estimate can be more accurate than 40%."
Any other caveats?
You have made a superb hangman's knot rope argument as to why kWh meters are far superior to amp hour meters.
Spreadsheets and wishful thinking are fun. But spreadsheets and three bucks will get you a cup of coffee at any Starbucks. Energy calculation is not like trying to compute mpg/cost of fuel/and miles driven. Having done this for a living since the advent of inverters I can tell you the very most conscientious estimate is going to be off a country mile unless a person lives like I do, and that style of living would make a Trappist Monk look like Al Gore's lifestyle.
People are not fire hydrants. Their life style evolves. They do not camp in the same place on the same days in the year, in an unvarying climate like we have down here.
I can guarantee you that choosing too small of capacity battery bank, inverter, and method of recharge is a hell of a lot more painful than choosing too large of capacity. I have had customers SCREAM "That's too big! What are you nuts? You're wasting my money" Only to come back in a year or so and contritely admit "Gawrsh I sure am glad you talked me into the bigger unit - we are at near capacity. I had no idea we would want xxxxxxxx later on".