MrWizard wrote:
I think prices will eventually come down
I don't think it will every get cheaper than lead acid
Not in this century
The chemistry, and mfg processing are more technical and more costly
More costly to fabricate and assemble
This will keep them costing more than lead acid
But we can hope
I think the regulatory pressure on manufacture of lead and lead based products will push more efforts toward Li-Ion or similar technology.
The aircraft industry is leading the way and as we saw with Boeing's 787, solving many of the issues involved in large scale Li-Ion power storage.
Like anything else, initial high costs due to limited manufacture (combined with R&D espense) will give way to much lower costs. How fast? Depends on demand. Look at your flat screen TV. Remember what they cost 10-15 years ago? Now look at what the same sized units are selling for at Walmart.
Demand for new battery technology is being driven by the auto industry, Solar power industry, and even public utilities. We're down on the food chain but will certainly benefit from the gains made in larger batteries.
My local electric utility recently installed a huge "battery", about the size of two railroad box cars. Once installed it was filled with an electrolyte that contained the "charge". It will be charged during times when the spot price of electricity is low and will provide electricity for many thousands of homes when the cost is high. It appears that this technology is scalable so who knows, maybe we'll be able to recharge batteries by merely exchanging electrolyte. Who knows. Maybe next is the use of "di-lithium crystals" :)