agesilaus wrote:
All of these sites are far left biased and are hardly reliable. I could find some articles on Breitbart that argue the exact opposite. And you pro-green types would reject those. Here is a more honest look from the lefty Hill site: Projections
I found another that gave the honest guess of an adoption rate in the US of 3 to 10 percent in 2025. No one knows in other words. Obama said there would be 1,000,000 electric vehicles on the road in 2015. He was just off by 72 percent
In order for electric cars to spread you need certain things to happen in my opinion:
1) Range has to go way up, to 400 miles minimum, to kill range anxiety. This is essential to get non megacity drivers interested.
2) There would have to be a massive expansion of public charging stations.
3) Charging would have to be much faster, waiting 60-90 minutes to get a charge will not be popular.
4) Gas prices would have to skyrocket again. Not what anyone expects anymore after the shale revolution. Oil prices are projected to stay below $60 for at least the next 10 years.
5) Big electric vehicle would have to become available: SUV, Vans and Pickups. People do not want tiny cars.
6) Normal accessories would have to be standard on electrics. I mean a/c and heating along with now expected electronics like backup cameras and lane departure.
-------------------------------
Considering all the above I just don't see them being anything more than a niche product. Plus over all this is the Lithium production bottleneck. Electrics take almost 20 percent of worldwide Li production now. That does not leave room for a 10 fold expansion. Unless new Li deposits are found.
I think some of your points are valid but obviously you are looking at it from one nations point of view and I am looking at a broader view. Just wanted to mention a few things though as you seem interested.
Electrics are already available with greater than 300 mile ranges. They are 90,000 bucks and cheaper, faster and better appointed than their BMW and Mercedes competition. They build 80,000 a year and half are sold in the US. TESLA. But remember, not everyone needs 300 to 400 miles of range. For many 100 miles is more than adequate.
Agreed on the expansion of chargers. Long way to go but they are being added at a rate of about 1000 per year. Some are fast chargers and many are destination chargers but don't forget, the vast majority of charging is done at home at night at off peak rates. Life is different with an EV, you treat it like a cell phone or a tablet. Plug it in at night, ready to go in the morning. We plug both of ours in once or twice a week.
Chargers are getting faster all the time. The newest Chademos are 150 KWh rate although the various cars available today are still only accepting under 100. Ours charges at a max rate of 50 KW. A fast charge for us is typically 20 minutes although we rarely ever use a fast charger.
Agree on the gas price thing. I think it will go down actually as there is less demand. However, even at 2.50 a gallon it is still about a fifth of the cost for an electric. Most countries in the world have higher fuel costs than the US. So yah I believe the US will be one of the slower adaptors of the technology. Nothing wrong with that. Distances are longer in North America and there are more people that need longer range vehicles.
SUV's, crossovers and compact to large sedans make up the bulk of EV production. You might be mis-informed on that. There are a couple of small cars like smart cars and fiat 500 that are electric but they are in the minority of electrics.
This is a typical TESLA S sedan. Zero to sixty in 2.7 seconds. Comfortable seating for 5. They sell 80,000 a year of these at 90,000 a piece. 300 Mile range. (500 KM)
This is our leaf. Shorter range (200 KM) but adequate for us. 5 passenger, nice trunk, all seats heated, steering wheel heated, great sound system, great climate control, NAV. Very nice. Peppy but not like the Tesla. With a little bargaining 30,000 bucks and thats with zero incentives or tax rebate thingys. Not for everyone but works for us.
This may be what you are thinking when you think electric vehicles and you are not alone. This is Angela in our cabrio smart ED. Lots of fun. Quick and nimble. We actually do more miles on this one than our other car (the leaf). This is definetly a niche car...but also cheaper. Kinda my favourite though.
And reference your last point, I'm not sure I understood it. All electric vehicles that I know of have AC,Heat, heated seats, power windows, pretty much anything an Ice car has. I am not an expert and maybe there are some that don't have these features but we have driven pretty much every available EV and I have never seen one that isn't as well equipped or better than any of its ICE counterparts. Is that what you were referring to?
Hope this clarifies some things. I appreciated your comments.
John
