Forum Discussion
ShinerBock
Sep 17, 2019Explorer
thomas201 wrote:
I love everyone making future projections about trends and oil/gas prices. Having worked with people that did this voodoo I will let you in on the big secret. At least for oil and gas. They do it the other way around. By using the futures market for hedges and collars, they force a price that is used in project decisions. In effect a price is forced by these tools so we know the price into the future. Farmers do the same thing, I assume everyone in a commodity business does it the same way.
In the oil business the ones that don't are gobbled up by those that do. Farmers too (you get to know a lot of farmers in the O&G biz). Somebody that can hedge/collar really well is worth their price in gold.
Of course your predictions are just as good as the next gal/feller.
Pros don't predict, they fix the game.
While this is true to an extent. If we had to drill/frac just for natural gas, it would increase it's cost by ten (if not a hundred) fold. Since we are drilling for oil and natural gas comes out as a byproduct, it's cost is low.
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