Forum Discussion
Mickeyfan0805
Jan 23, 2020Explorer
mich800 wrote:2oldman wrote:valhalla360 wrote:It takes that long for doubting Thomases to die off.
Obviously, it would need to be a couple generations into adoption, so human driven cars are essentially eliminated from the roadways.
So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.
Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.
It's only been 112 years since the Model T, and far fewer than that since the car became a general household item - and car tech and expectation has changed dramatically in that time. A 'couple generations' could mean 50-75 years. I don't think it's unrealistic to think that human-operated cars could be a collector's item by the end of this century.
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