Kohldad,
Interesting question. Here is my $0.02 opinion. Based on your spreadsheet, it looks like you would recover your savings in about a year, no matter what the price of fuels do. I took the liberty to adjust the fuel costs in your spreadsheet to what I experience in the southeast. Obviously the higher fuel costs accelerate your recovery. Based on industry heuristics, this would be an acceptable investment because we make decisions based on recovery not savings. If I read your spreadsheet correctly, your six year operating savings were about $3k on a six year cost residual differential of about $3k. ( it took me a minute to understand your filter cell values, F5 and G5, are $). Obviously, you have to keep the truck for 90k because the recovery would be about 13 years after the first year.
That said, I am curious why you'd like to trade in a rather new truck? What would change between your existing and new trucks?
I own a 1996, 12 valve, Cummins that I ordered brand new. I've maintained it myself and just completed a full front end rebuild (2012) and a top end rebuild (2013, replaced head, studs, heavy valve springs, etc.). I wouldn't hesitate to drive it anywhere, with or w/o camper. Yes these maintenance projects were expensive, about $4500 for parts combined. Folks probably think I'm crazy for spending this much money on a 17+ year old truck. However, from the prices I've seen at my local dealership, this is about the sales tax on a new truck!
My truck is no where near as sophisticated as the new models however, I still like it. I also drive a brand new diesel sedan which has all the bells and whistles and I still prefer my old truck. My truck is simple to a fault and very straight forward. No pretense.
In fact, my old 12v is dumb as a stump. Very simple compared to a spark engine (and probably the new compression engines as well). I get excellent mileage for what it is/does (23 unloaded, 17+ with camper). Hard to say how long it will last but I think it will last my lifetime if properly maintained.
It sounds like I'm a diesel proponent, which I am for the reasons mentioned. Here are my answers to your questions;
1. I've never had any problems with water in fuel
2. Never had problems with cool down after heavy towing my 14k equipment trailers. I installed aftermarket gauges to keep things monitored
3. I don't have an exhaust brake, maybe in the future, but installed the heavy valve springs to be ready. I spend most of my time in the southeast which has a minimum of long, steep, grades. Never had a problem with brake wear, pads/rotors, shoes/drums. All my trailers have electric brakes and I run a good controller.
And one other thing, I really like the range I get with a diesel. Can be 600-800 miles depending on if I'm loaded or not. At least one less stop compared to a spark engine.
Good luck with your decision and an early congratulations on your new truck. Let us know your decision.
Dave